I'm sick and home from work for yesterday and today.
Now after reading these two new tax or fee schemes, I'm sick and cranky...
Our State Democrats really need some adult supervision.
Here are two proposals that are just plain stupid. the first one which thankfully got the boots put to it is the bill SB 6900 and it adds an "engine displacement" fee to the vehicle license tabs upon renewal. The fee has a varied amount depending on the size of the vehicle's engine:
Engine Size (liters) Rate Schedule (note how they use non -American measurements to attempt to confuse us...)
Up to 1.9 $0
2.0 - 2.9 $70
3.0 - 3.9 $225
4.0 - 4.9 $275
5.0 - 5.9 $325
6.0 - 7.9 $400
8.0 or over $600
For each car & truck that you own, calculate the rate by matching the engine size in liters to the dollar amount. Add the amounts for each vehicle and you'll see that the average two car family will be paying $500+ every year in "displacement fees" on top of the normal licensefees. If you have three vehicles, you'll be paying even more.
How about those of us with AMERICAN MACHINES?
I mean litres per dollar, shouldn't that be litre per yen or euro?
Here is my fleet:
V-8's:
454 cubic inches
318 cubic inches
259 cubic inches
straight 6:
240 cubic inches
V-twins:
110 cubic inches
88 cubic inches
45 cubic inches
How much will I pay for these under the new scheme that will come back next year if we don't elect some adult supervision in Olympia? It appears that it will be more than before we voted on $30.00 car tabs. (At least several of these are considered antiques, but I'll bet that the Taxocrats will find a way to stab me in my hard working back on those also...)
AND it just keeps getting worse...
Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler’s universal-coverage bill, House Bill 2640, as sponsored by Reps. Eileen Cody, D-Seattle, Steve Conway, D-Tacoma, Bob Hasegawa, D-Seattle, and others, as calculated by the state’s Office of Financial Management:
FY 2010 $ 3,139,000,000
FY 2011 $ 7,705,000,000
FY 2012 $ 7,898,000,000
FY 2013 $ 8,095,000,000
FY 2014 $ 8,297,000,000
FY 2015 $ 8,504,000,000
FY 2016 $ 8,717,000,000
FY 2017 $ 8,935,000,000
Total $61,290,000,000
"FY" means fiscal year, You can see that it starts at $3.1 billion, which is slightly less than 10 percent of the budget. But it quickly gets up to $8 billion, which would be about one-fifth of a much larger state budget. And recall from the history of Medicare and other government medical programs that these programs always cost more than projected...Always, and on the backs of the hard working men and women.
Remember, this proposal that Governer Grinch loves so much will be taken out of our hard earned pay checks to pay for health care for those who choose not to work. Businesses will foot the other half of of this. Just who exactly will be the beneficiaries of this scheme? It sure won't be those of us who work for a living, now will it? By the way, this won't be considered a State income tax. So what will they consider calling it?
Gotta go back to bed and get some sleep so I can go back to work tomorrow to put money away to pay for these stupid new tax schemes.
To quote Ron White, "you can't fix stupid."
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
NEWS FROM THE FRONTLINES
( Guest writer: gk and LTC CV)
Dear gentle readers -
If you want to read encouraging words out of Iraq - take the time to read this email.
As many of you know, in the past, whenever I get a "first hand" encouraging letter from soldiers who are fighting on the front - I try to forward them, as I believe them to be more accurate then what we are reading in the Main Stream Media. Of course, there is no way to check out these personal letter's accuracy - but whatever, there is no way to check out the MSM's reports either, except to compare each to the other. I prefer to believe the first hand soldier's reports. And by far, even during the worst days of fighting, it seems that the vast majority of these reports were able to see the positive side of the Iraqi situation (ordinary Iraqi's being friendly to our troops/hospitals & schools being rebuilt/opened again, etc.) as opposed to the MSM reports which seem to focus almost exclusively on the negative side (Iraqi's and American Soldiers being killed by roadside bombs, etc). The attached soldier's personal letter also shows this trend.
In any case, mostly, our troop's personal reports are positive, all the MSM reports from the beginning of the Iraqi conflict are negative because the liberal supporting reporters want Pres. Bush and the Iraq/Afghanistan wars to fail. So these kinds of positive personal reports from those that are actually putting their lives on the line, somewhat offset the constant stream of negative news we get out of Iraq/Afghanistan out of the MSM and give some amount of balance.
It is my understanding that for the most part, except a brave few, the MSM reporters are holed up in hotels within the Baghdad "Green Zone" walls - (which is a heavily guarded area containing the American Embassy and the Iraqi Govt) and because of the previous violence prevalent throughout some of the Iraqi Provinces. These American reporters are/have been dependent on Iraqi reporters (stringers who are paid by the article - who as natives - actually go outside the Green Area and return and try to feed the American Reporters what they want to hear - i.e. deaths,failures and bombings, not successes in peace and rebuilding and cooperation). I don't know if the American reporters are now getting out into the field and getting first hand news themselves or not? I doubt it. I can't really blame the American reporters for not risking their skins outside the "Green Zone" because the last I heard, something like 80 some of them from all countries had been killed in the fighting - and that's obviously not what they signed on for! So until it becomes common for our American reporters to actually get out in the country-side and see first hand - the progress, I would suppose we can expect to hear failure, doom & gloom, etc. Sells news papers and provide headlines when people die.
But whatever, this soldier's personal letter is forwarded for whatever it is worth -
I am encouraged also by the fact that about 10 days, one of the top three overall al Qaeda leaders/commander leading the fighting was killed by a predator drone missile along with about a dozen other leaders. The death of Abu Laith al-Libi was reported 1 Feb. on Islamic extremist Web sites and confirmed by an American official, who said the veteran Al Qaeda leader died when a missile from a U.S. Predator drone struck a compound in Pakistan's North Waziristan region late Monday. The U.S. says al-Libi — whose name means "the Libyan" in Arabic — was likely behind a February 2007 bombing at the U.S. base at Bagram in Afghanistan during a visit by Vice President Dick Cheney. The attack killed 23 people but Cheney was deep inside the sprawling base and was not hurt. Al-Libi was among the most high-profile figures in Al Qaeda after its leader, Osama bin Laden, and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahri.
This is the third? report of the supposed top al Qaeda leader(s) in Iraq/Afghanistan being killed in some way - but it is a hopeful sign (not for the al Qaeda leader(s) of course) when we keep picking off the long time top al Qaeda guy(s), and as new ones come forward. We also have many drones flying over wherever Osama and his henchmen are holed up in caves in the Afghan/Pakistani border area - 24/7 - and sooner or later, these leaders are going to stick their noses out of their caves and get them blown off by a missile too. Course I have been predicting this event now - since summer/fall of 2004, but sooner or later, the very top al Qaeda will be captured/killed too. (Assuming it happens before 20 Jan 2009 or whomever is the next president doesn't cut & run, withdraw from the Iraq/Afghanistan fight)
In other emails, I have said in order for any insurgency to be successful, 3 things are needed.
1. An outside national power(s) funding/supplying/arming the insurgents (In this case the outside parties being Iran/Syria/Russia? etc.)
2. Safe Sanctuaries for the insurgents to hide in between battles.
3. A willing local populous that supports/protects them either willingly or under coercion.
In this letter, the letter writer describe how two of the three above needed conditions being taken away from the al Qaeda insurgents - there are no safe sanctuaries for the insurgents to retreat to and/or hide, they are being targeted and captured and/or killed. And the local populous has become convinced that they can - with immunity - turn in the al Qaeda in their neighborhoods without they themselves being targeted and killed by other uncaptured al Qaeda's. The local's have become convinced that we (Americans) are not going to abandon them and let the al Qaeda come back and kill them for collaborating with the American/Iraqi military.
Although this letter doesn't so state, I read elsewhere - that how we are finding and killing/capturing the al Qaeda/insurgents rooted among the populous in the Baghdad area is that we have directly hired 22,000 Iraqi Militia who we directly pay ourselves. (This has been a problem with earlier efforts where the Iraqi National Forces were hired by the Iraqi Central Govt - we trained them but they didn't get paid - so they would quit after 6 months of no pay and go back home). Anyway, we have hired out own Iraqi Militia - and these militia live and watch their own neighborhoods, man check points and are the "eyes and ears" for our own military. There are hundreds, maybe thousands of checkpoints with these "private" militia working directly for us, and either they - themselves capture the insurgents or let us know where they are, and they are then being captured by either our's or the Iraqi regular military. We also now have American Military and (newly trained) Iraqi National Forces Military working side-by-side and they are now becoming more and more effective in what they do. In fact, I have read that the Iraqi Military have now been given & taken charge of almost all the areas of the country of Iraq in providing security, except in a few remaining hot spots. (17 of 19 provinces?)
I have heard that it is estimated that there only remain 3500 hard core al Qaeda operating in Iraq- I don't know how that figure was arrived at or how good it is? and there are hardly any new foreign fighters/al Qaeda being imported into Iraq as in previous years. Perhaps we have hardened the borders and also, have somehow gotten to these supporting countries, Saudi Arabia, Iran & Syria diplomatically so those importing insurgents are slowing them down? So it seems, what was previously thought to be an endless supply of new insurgent fighters coming into Iraq seems to be abating somewhat. So this goes to the other (third) insurgent requirement, that they be supplied by an outside force, with money/munitions/weapons and fighters. This outside power(s) support seems to be slowing if not stopped too.
And finally, the Iraqi/American's have figured out a way to let those insurgents who formerly were actively fighting the central Iraqi authority & American forces, to turn themselves in and surrender their arms - with some amount of amnesty. And that seems to be working too. In fact, I have heard that former Sunni/Shiite enemies are even being reconciled and even incorporated into the Iraqi National Forces and if they are truly loyal to the National Govt - they probably know exactly who they are and where their former fellow insurgents are holed up, and can find them!
Read the letter, and coupled with my info above, you can interpret what is being said by this soldier/writer. gk
(Here are a few added comments - marked in blue - to clarify the writers cryptic comments and place the names/places mentioned into context.)
(Added. gk - "Summit" refers to this writer's Iraqi area of operations, apparently within the city of Hawijah/surrounds)
(Note Added - gk - Hawijah is an agricultural town of about 50,000, is located 30 miles in the southwest of Kirkuk in Northern Iraq, is considered an old bastion of the Sunni Iraqi resistance. Because the Baghdad area "surge" is killing/capturing many of the Baghdad insurgents - others are fleeing to Hawijah)
(Note: gk - I'm assuming "Cobra" refers to the U.S. Forces which this letter writer commands/is a part of)
(Added: -gk- I'm assuming these "6,000 Iraqi Partners" referred to above are similar to the 22.000 civilian/militia "eyes & ears" types being used to man check points in the Baghdad area - mentioned in my previous comments. Use of these kinds of embedded local militia types denies the al Qaeda being able to blend within the populous because these locally hired Iraqi's know their neighborhoods and who is who and who supports who.)
==================
From LTC Christopher Vanek,
Battalion Commander February 1st, 2008
Dear Summit Friends and Families,
Well folks, we've completed another month in Operation Iraqi Freedom and I can fortunately provide you nothing but incredible news from the front on the accomplishments of your Summit Warriors. We are witnessing historical changes within our district that truly amaze us, while also challenging us to keep up with them.
Our targeting of the terrorist network has down right ripped the guts out of Al Qaeda in Hawijah. - In the past 4 weeks, we've detained or killed 5 of the top 10 Brigade High Value Targets. Additionally we have captured hundreds of terrorist fighters and in just the past 2 weeks, we've achieved an 85% target capture rate when going after a specific individual. I would challenge anyone in history to compete with this.
More importantly, the enemy has taken notice and we continue to see them either attempt to surrender in our reconciliation effort, or flee our district.
Violence in January dropped 80% or more in our district. We go weeks at a time now without a violent attack against our Soldiers. This is significant because as you might recall, it was just a couple of months ago when our Blacksheep would sustain multiple attacks every night in Hawijah, and anytime the Cobra's entered in Abassi, they were attacked with grenades and IED's. In fact, it was suicidal in October to drive thru Hawijah during daylight, now we walk the streets freely greeting our neighbors with smiles and handshakes.
Today we conducted our second Reconciliation Gathering and this was even more successful than the initial one with 42 terrorists coming forward to lay their arms down and join the peace process. We expect this number to continue to grow exponentially as the Government of Iraq informally approves of this path to peace. We will continue to pursue every avenue possible through lethal actions against our enemies or by making offerings for amnesty to those deserving.
Many of you are probably either not believing what we are achieving or are in disbelief because of what the media reports. I cannot tell you the media misleads anyone because we have less of a perspective of the comprehensive situation in Iraq than you probably do. But we can speak for the Area of Operations Summit in which we are responsible.
There are three primary reasons for the success we've achieved. First, our lethal targeting has evolved to PhD level effectiveness. Our Soldiers are capturing their intended targets every single day with a level of success no one could have asked for. Secondly, the formation of the Awakening or Concerned Local Citizens within AO Summit has emplaced over 6,000 Iraqi partners in our AO. This required tremendous effort and hard work from your loved ones. But it's paid off in lives saved, terrorists captured, IED's discovered and caches turned in on a daily basis. There is literally no where for the enemy to hide right now.
Finally, and most importantly, the daily discipline and honor that your Soldier's display cannot be measured in effectiveness, yet the results are indisputable. As I told you earlier this month, every local I encounter makes it a point to tell me how much they appreciate the kindness, yet firmness our Soldiers display to the people of Iraq. Our Soldiers have or are winning the hearts and minds every single day.
Obviously not everything is positive. All of us miss our loved ones and desire to return to you as quickly as possible. But we remain resolute in seeing our mission completed. And having been involved in this fight for almost 7 years now, I've never been part of a team that was winning as much as this team is, and the sense of optimism is rapidly growing.
We couldn't do this without your support. Whether it is our spouses sending the Iraqi children toys, or the Allen family visiting our hero SPC Camacho in the hospital in Richmond, the acts of kindness and generosity remain truly inspirational.
The winds of success could rapidly shift from our favor, but we currently enjoy a sail full of momentum and look forward to our continued successes on the battlefield.
To The Top!
Chris
===============================
For those interested, here is another story penned by LTC Vanek:
http://www.army.mil/-news/2008/01/11/6969-commentary-american-soldier-remains-nations-ultimate-weapon/
Lt Col Christopher Vanek commands the 1st Battalion, 87th Infantry Battalion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1st_Battalion,_87th_Infantry_Battalion_(United_States)
===================================
(Please pray for our Patriot Armed Forces standing in harm’s way around the world, and for their families— Of all the gifts you can give them, PRAYER is the best!) gk
Dear gentle readers -
If you want to read encouraging words out of Iraq - take the time to read this email.
As many of you know, in the past, whenever I get a "first hand" encouraging letter from soldiers who are fighting on the front - I try to forward them, as I believe them to be more accurate then what we are reading in the Main Stream Media. Of course, there is no way to check out these personal letter's accuracy - but whatever, there is no way to check out the MSM's reports either, except to compare each to the other. I prefer to believe the first hand soldier's reports. And by far, even during the worst days of fighting, it seems that the vast majority of these reports were able to see the positive side of the Iraqi situation (ordinary Iraqi's being friendly to our troops/hospitals & schools being rebuilt/opened again, etc.) as opposed to the MSM reports which seem to focus almost exclusively on the negative side (Iraqi's and American Soldiers being killed by roadside bombs, etc). The attached soldier's personal letter also shows this trend.
In any case, mostly, our troop's personal reports are positive, all the MSM reports from the beginning of the Iraqi conflict are negative because the liberal supporting reporters want Pres. Bush and the Iraq/Afghanistan wars to fail. So these kinds of positive personal reports from those that are actually putting their lives on the line, somewhat offset the constant stream of negative news we get out of Iraq/Afghanistan out of the MSM and give some amount of balance.
It is my understanding that for the most part, except a brave few, the MSM reporters are holed up in hotels within the Baghdad "Green Zone" walls - (which is a heavily guarded area containing the American Embassy and the Iraqi Govt) and because of the previous violence prevalent throughout some of the Iraqi Provinces. These American reporters are/have been dependent on Iraqi reporters (stringers who are paid by the article - who as natives - actually go outside the Green Area and return and try to feed the American Reporters what they want to hear - i.e. deaths,failures and bombings, not successes in peace and rebuilding and cooperation). I don't know if the American reporters are now getting out into the field and getting first hand news themselves or not? I doubt it. I can't really blame the American reporters for not risking their skins outside the "Green Zone" because the last I heard, something like 80 some of them from all countries had been killed in the fighting - and that's obviously not what they signed on for! So until it becomes common for our American reporters to actually get out in the country-side and see first hand - the progress, I would suppose we can expect to hear failure, doom & gloom, etc. Sells news papers and provide headlines when people die.
But whatever, this soldier's personal letter is forwarded for whatever it is worth -
I am encouraged also by the fact that about 10 days, one of the top three overall al Qaeda leaders/commander leading the fighting was killed by a predator drone missile along with about a dozen other leaders. The death of Abu Laith al-Libi was reported 1 Feb. on Islamic extremist Web sites and confirmed by an American official, who said the veteran Al Qaeda leader died when a missile from a U.S. Predator drone struck a compound in Pakistan's North Waziristan region late Monday. The U.S. says al-Libi — whose name means "the Libyan" in Arabic — was likely behind a February 2007 bombing at the U.S. base at Bagram in Afghanistan during a visit by Vice President Dick Cheney. The attack killed 23 people but Cheney was deep inside the sprawling base and was not hurt. Al-Libi was among the most high-profile figures in Al Qaeda after its leader, Osama bin Laden, and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahri.
This is the third? report of the supposed top al Qaeda leader(s) in Iraq/Afghanistan being killed in some way - but it is a hopeful sign (not for the al Qaeda leader(s) of course) when we keep picking off the long time top al Qaeda guy(s), and as new ones come forward. We also have many drones flying over wherever Osama and his henchmen are holed up in caves in the Afghan/Pakistani border area - 24/7 - and sooner or later, these leaders are going to stick their noses out of their caves and get them blown off by a missile too. Course I have been predicting this event now - since summer/fall of 2004, but sooner or later, the very top al Qaeda will be captured/killed too. (Assuming it happens before 20 Jan 2009 or whomever is the next president doesn't cut & run, withdraw from the Iraq/Afghanistan fight)
In other emails, I have said in order for any insurgency to be successful, 3 things are needed.
1. An outside national power(s) funding/supplying/arming the insurgents (In this case the outside parties being Iran/Syria/Russia? etc.)
2. Safe Sanctuaries for the insurgents to hide in between battles.
3. A willing local populous that supports/protects them either willingly or under coercion.
In this letter, the letter writer describe how two of the three above needed conditions being taken away from the al Qaeda insurgents - there are no safe sanctuaries for the insurgents to retreat to and/or hide, they are being targeted and captured and/or killed. And the local populous has become convinced that they can - with immunity - turn in the al Qaeda in their neighborhoods without they themselves being targeted and killed by other uncaptured al Qaeda's. The local's have become convinced that we (Americans) are not going to abandon them and let the al Qaeda come back and kill them for collaborating with the American/Iraqi military.
Although this letter doesn't so state, I read elsewhere - that how we are finding and killing/capturing the al Qaeda/insurgents rooted among the populous in the Baghdad area is that we have directly hired 22,000 Iraqi Militia who we directly pay ourselves. (This has been a problem with earlier efforts where the Iraqi National Forces were hired by the Iraqi Central Govt - we trained them but they didn't get paid - so they would quit after 6 months of no pay and go back home). Anyway, we have hired out own Iraqi Militia - and these militia live and watch their own neighborhoods, man check points and are the "eyes and ears" for our own military. There are hundreds, maybe thousands of checkpoints with these "private" militia working directly for us, and either they - themselves capture the insurgents or let us know where they are, and they are then being captured by either our's or the Iraqi regular military. We also now have American Military and (newly trained) Iraqi National Forces Military working side-by-side and they are now becoming more and more effective in what they do. In fact, I have read that the Iraqi Military have now been given & taken charge of almost all the areas of the country of Iraq in providing security, except in a few remaining hot spots. (17 of 19 provinces?)
I have heard that it is estimated that there only remain 3500 hard core al Qaeda operating in Iraq- I don't know how that figure was arrived at or how good it is? and there are hardly any new foreign fighters/al Qaeda being imported into Iraq as in previous years. Perhaps we have hardened the borders and also, have somehow gotten to these supporting countries, Saudi Arabia, Iran & Syria diplomatically so those importing insurgents are slowing them down? So it seems, what was previously thought to be an endless supply of new insurgent fighters coming into Iraq seems to be abating somewhat. So this goes to the other (third) insurgent requirement, that they be supplied by an outside force, with money/munitions/weapons and fighters. This outside power(s) support seems to be slowing if not stopped too.
And finally, the Iraqi/American's have figured out a way to let those insurgents who formerly were actively fighting the central Iraqi authority & American forces, to turn themselves in and surrender their arms - with some amount of amnesty. And that seems to be working too. In fact, I have heard that former Sunni/Shiite enemies are even being reconciled and even incorporated into the Iraqi National Forces and if they are truly loyal to the National Govt - they probably know exactly who they are and where their former fellow insurgents are holed up, and can find them!
Read the letter, and coupled with my info above, you can interpret what is being said by this soldier/writer. gk
(Here are a few added comments - marked in blue - to clarify the writers cryptic comments and place the names/places mentioned into context.)
(Added. gk - "Summit" refers to this writer's Iraqi area of operations, apparently within the city of Hawijah/surrounds)
(Note Added - gk - Hawijah is an agricultural town of about 50,000, is located 30 miles in the southwest of Kirkuk in Northern Iraq, is considered an old bastion of the Sunni Iraqi resistance. Because the Baghdad area "surge" is killing/capturing many of the Baghdad insurgents - others are fleeing to Hawijah)
(Note: gk - I'm assuming "Cobra" refers to the U.S. Forces which this letter writer commands/is a part of)
(Added: -gk- I'm assuming these "6,000 Iraqi Partners" referred to above are similar to the 22.000 civilian/militia "eyes & ears" types being used to man check points in the Baghdad area - mentioned in my previous comments. Use of these kinds of embedded local militia types denies the al Qaeda being able to blend within the populous because these locally hired Iraqi's know their neighborhoods and who is who and who supports who.)
==================
From LTC Christopher Vanek,
Battalion Commander February 1st, 2008
Dear Summit Friends and Families,
Well folks, we've completed another month in Operation Iraqi Freedom and I can fortunately provide you nothing but incredible news from the front on the accomplishments of your Summit Warriors. We are witnessing historical changes within our district that truly amaze us, while also challenging us to keep up with them.
Our targeting of the terrorist network has down right ripped the guts out of Al Qaeda in Hawijah. - In the past 4 weeks, we've detained or killed 5 of the top 10 Brigade High Value Targets. Additionally we have captured hundreds of terrorist fighters and in just the past 2 weeks, we've achieved an 85% target capture rate when going after a specific individual. I would challenge anyone in history to compete with this.
More importantly, the enemy has taken notice and we continue to see them either attempt to surrender in our reconciliation effort, or flee our district.
Violence in January dropped 80% or more in our district. We go weeks at a time now without a violent attack against our Soldiers. This is significant because as you might recall, it was just a couple of months ago when our Blacksheep would sustain multiple attacks every night in Hawijah, and anytime the Cobra's entered in Abassi, they were attacked with grenades and IED's. In fact, it was suicidal in October to drive thru Hawijah during daylight, now we walk the streets freely greeting our neighbors with smiles and handshakes.
Today we conducted our second Reconciliation Gathering and this was even more successful than the initial one with 42 terrorists coming forward to lay their arms down and join the peace process. We expect this number to continue to grow exponentially as the Government of Iraq informally approves of this path to peace. We will continue to pursue every avenue possible through lethal actions against our enemies or by making offerings for amnesty to those deserving.
Many of you are probably either not believing what we are achieving or are in disbelief because of what the media reports. I cannot tell you the media misleads anyone because we have less of a perspective of the comprehensive situation in Iraq than you probably do. But we can speak for the Area of Operations Summit in which we are responsible.
There are three primary reasons for the success we've achieved. First, our lethal targeting has evolved to PhD level effectiveness. Our Soldiers are capturing their intended targets every single day with a level of success no one could have asked for. Secondly, the formation of the Awakening or Concerned Local Citizens within AO Summit has emplaced over 6,000 Iraqi partners in our AO. This required tremendous effort and hard work from your loved ones. But it's paid off in lives saved, terrorists captured, IED's discovered and caches turned in on a daily basis. There is literally no where for the enemy to hide right now.
Finally, and most importantly, the daily discipline and honor that your Soldier's display cannot be measured in effectiveness, yet the results are indisputable. As I told you earlier this month, every local I encounter makes it a point to tell me how much they appreciate the kindness, yet firmness our Soldiers display to the people of Iraq. Our Soldiers have or are winning the hearts and minds every single day.
Obviously not everything is positive. All of us miss our loved ones and desire to return to you as quickly as possible. But we remain resolute in seeing our mission completed. And having been involved in this fight for almost 7 years now, I've never been part of a team that was winning as much as this team is, and the sense of optimism is rapidly growing.
We couldn't do this without your support. Whether it is our spouses sending the Iraqi children toys, or the Allen family visiting our hero SPC Camacho in the hospital in Richmond, the acts of kindness and generosity remain truly inspirational.
The winds of success could rapidly shift from our favor, but we currently enjoy a sail full of momentum and look forward to our continued successes on the battlefield.
To The Top!
Chris
===============================
For those interested, here is another story penned by LTC Vanek:
http://www.army.mil/-news/2008/01/11/6969-commentary-american-soldier-remains-nations-ultimate-weapon/
Lt Col Christopher Vanek commands the 1st Battalion, 87th Infantry Battalion.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1st_Battalion,_87th_Infantry_Battalion_(United_States)
===================================
(Please pray for our Patriot Armed Forces standing in harm’s way around the world, and for their families— Of all the gifts you can give them, PRAYER is the best!) gk
Thursday, February 7, 2008
A FRIENDLY NOTE TO RON PAUL SUPPORTERS
(Guest Writer: gk)
Although I agree with Ron Paul on some things (like being a strict constitutionalist) - there are other areas upon which I vehemently disagree - his Isolationalist ideas are the main ones. I simply think it is impractical to withdraw to a "fortress America" and abrogate all our standing trade agreements and national mutual defense agreements, and not expect that our national security or standard of living will not be severely jeopardized. If we were to unilaterally withdraw our military from around the word - those areas we withdraw from, would soon be over-run by whichever crazie holds forth in that part of the world - i.e. Middle-East - Iran, Middle Europe - Russia, Far East - China or N.Korea and as soon as these countries were under their control, they would soon all gang up on the U.S. and either individually, or collectively, attack us. So it's fight them over there or over here - take your choice. We tried isolationist policies after WWI and didn't work then either. Germany overran Europe and Japan attacked first China and then all the Pacific Islands and then finally Pearl Harbor, when we finally got in it. We are still thinking about both Pearl Harbor and 9-11. Some people have forgot.
We also produce much more of everything then we can consume - especially in food products, wheat, etc, and we depend on our world-wide trade to give our national producer's their profit - in turn - buying other nations products that we don't produce. Without this global economy, which I understand Paul wants to withdraw from, the world would go into a world-wide depression - bottom line, nations would starve - and we too, would be very hard put to maintain our economy. With hostile nations in charge of most of, if not all the world's oil - our entire U.S. economy/society would grind to a huge halt without oil. I could go on and on- but Paul's ideas are just not practical or reality. He has a 1776 Constitutionalist mentality in a very complex world-wide/mutually dependent 2008 world - and his simplistic ideas simply won't work. So, it serves no purpose to take his ideas one-by-one and consider/discuss them.
I also disagree with McCain on some things, but his main claim to fame is backing G.W. on the War on Terror and specifically Iraq and Afghanistan - which is my number one priority campaign issue. So if it comes down to McCain and whoever the Dem's candidate is, they have already said (like Ron Paul) that they would "cut and run" in Iraq - and McCain has said, he would stay there for 100 years if necessary to insure our nation's safety, so that's a no brainer who I would vote for. If our nation doesn't have security, all the rest of it is moot.
I don't agree with your assessment that McCain can't win.
Against Hillary, I think McCain gets the nod - depending on their running mates.
Against Obama - I'm not as sure McCain can win - that will be a question of how many would vote for a black man, with some great amount of confusion about his true loyalties - Muslim background/seems a bit reluctant to salute the flag, etc. And of course, the other great unknown about Obama is that so far has said "He's for change" "Trust me" and not much more. When he gets down to his stand on specific issues - if he ever does, maybe he won't fare so well. And then the race will tighten up a lot more. Not much is unknown about McCain, but there is not much that is known about Obama, and as he becomes better known, I think he will lose a lot of his appeal. He is a glib speaker, has a lot of charisma and sex appeal - as compared to McCain, but I think when it comes down to pulling the lever, the Soccer Moms of this world will vote for their family's security and go with a proven warrior and that is McCain . Not "cut & run" Obama. (or Billary or Paul)
It's beginning to look more and more like a McCain/Obama race - so it will remain to be seen who is electable and who isn't.
Not withstanding the Ron Paul email that is circulating saying - ignore the MSM and the way to get Ron Paul nominated as the Republican Nominee, is to gain enough delegates to the Nat'l Convention is to get delegates at the various state's conventions, and that way, win at the Nat'l Convention. I am very skeptical that that is doable. McCain already has 703 delegates, by winning previous Winner-take-all states or through caucus states to now and winning caucus/popular delegates that are committed delegates at the Nat'l level. Ron Paul has 14 to date. Bit of a disparity there! Little humor!
There are 2503 delegates to the Republican Nat'l Convention. 1191 are need to secure the nomination. So far, according to today's Herald - 1200 are already assigned/committed. When the other candidates concede, traditionally and historically, they release/assign their won delegates to the front runner as a sign of unity. This means Romney (293) & Huckabee (190) and between the two of them, they have enough votes they could throw to the nomination to McCain today, assuming not another delegate is assigned from today. Traditionally, these delegates follow their candidate's wishes but occasionally a few rebels will still vote another way. It's not common but it has happened to a few votes. So the nomination is already over assuming tradition is followed - and Romney and Huckabee either now or eventually throw their votes to McCain (vs Paul) and I fully expect that in the interest s of party unity and giving McCain a head start on campaigning against whomever the eventual Democrat candidate will be.
Almost half of the available Republican Delegates votes are already decided to now in primary elections. Of the remaining states primary elections, in order for Ron Paul to catch up with McCain/Huckabee, he would have to win 1176 out of the remaining 1303 uncommitted states delegate votes. Good luck to Paul in winning 91% of all the remaining state's primary popular or caucus vote! Not going to happen! Especially since to date, he has typically garnered around 3-5% of the primary votes. His delegate percentage at present is around 1.1%. So if he can turn this around and win 90 some % more of the popular vote then he has to now, he can just about tie the front runners in the remaining states.
I admire the zeal of Ron Paul's grass roots workers, but reality is reality. The political system as presently structured is stacked against fringe candidates such as Ron Paul/Perot's/Ralph Nader's/etc.
Running for president costs a lot of money. Romney spent 35M of his own trying to get nominated - and has 293 delegates. He has conceded today. He will probably throw his delegates to McCain, but we'll see. Ron Paul hasn't spent that kind of money - hasn't got that kind of money, won't get that kind of money - and now that it is only McCain and Huckabee, besides him, I don't think Paul is going to create any ground swell with about 52% of the remaining delegate vote up for grabs and win a vast majority of those. He would have to win an overwhelming majority of these remaining delegates to pull it off. I just don't see it in the cards.
Much as I hate to say it, I think the rest of the remaining state's presidential primaries and caucus's are just going through the motions - including our Washington State primary. I think that McCain is pretty much a lock. Today's Herald below the fold front page headline thinks so too.
But - believe what you will, I haven't been right yet in any of my predictions, except about a year ago, I predicted that Billary won't even win the nomination, much less the presidency. That prediction is still alive. All my other predictions have gone down in flames - i.e. I picked George Allen to be the Republican nominee and he didn't even get out of the gate at the beginning of the race - Giuliani did, as did Duncan Hunter, Tancredo, Fred Thompson, Romney, Alan Keyes, and they are all dead in the water - so, this has been a brutal race to predict! So, maybe a huge miracle will occur and Ron Paul will finally win? We'll see. -gk
Tuesday, February 5, 2008
FRIENDS OF NRA
Last year the Black Mountain Boy scout camp was broken into by a bunch of recidivistic scum.
They stole camping gear, fishing gear, and broke into the the range and stole a several .22 caliber single shot hunting rifles. Before you think that the scoutmasters were irresponsible; They weren't. these rifles were always locked up, and were locked up at the time. The system was outdated.
However, Some good Samaritans stepped forward, and provided an emergency grant to replace their Camping Gear, Fishing Gear, and not only replaced their rifles, but In creased the number of rifles with help from Sportsman Warehouse, Bellingham's Security Solutions stepped forward and made a very modern Firearm Safe available to these Good Samaritans who coordinated these efforts.
Who are these good samaritans?
They are the Skagit and Whatcom County chapters of the Freinds of NAtional Rifle Association.
Their grant giving priorities are for youth safety and shooting programs, women's self defense programs and firearm range development.
In order to raise these funds, they need your help.
This Year, FRIDAY MAY NINTH at the Lakeway Inn, they will be hosting another fundraiser Auction and Banquet. It is a great family evening and prices for dinner are to be announced.
Details will be coming as the date gets closer. And yes Sam Taylor, there are many fine pieces of hardware on the auction block. You are invited to sit at my Table...
They stole camping gear, fishing gear, and broke into the the range and stole a several .22 caliber single shot hunting rifles. Before you think that the scoutmasters were irresponsible; They weren't. these rifles were always locked up, and were locked up at the time. The system was outdated.
However, Some good Samaritans stepped forward, and provided an emergency grant to replace their Camping Gear, Fishing Gear, and not only replaced their rifles, but In creased the number of rifles with help from Sportsman Warehouse, Bellingham's Security Solutions stepped forward and made a very modern Firearm Safe available to these Good Samaritans who coordinated these efforts.
Who are these good samaritans?
They are the Skagit and Whatcom County chapters of the Freinds of NAtional Rifle Association.
Their grant giving priorities are for youth safety and shooting programs, women's self defense programs and firearm range development.
In order to raise these funds, they need your help.
This Year, FRIDAY MAY NINTH at the Lakeway Inn, they will be hosting another fundraiser Auction and Banquet. It is a great family evening and prices for dinner are to be announced.
Details will be coming as the date gets closer. And yes Sam Taylor, there are many fine pieces of hardware on the auction block. You are invited to sit at my Table...
Thursday, January 31, 2008
PRESIDENTIAL PREDICTIONS
(Guest Writer: gk)
(Folks, before we begin with gk's column, I have found pictures for all my authors...I hope they forgive me...-Dexter)
Well, well, well, let the mocking begin! I missed my Florida Election percentages by a skosh!
Let me review my exact prediction's words (written a full 5 days ago.)
Quote:
Several of my Ron Paul supporting friends have made sure that I get my fair share of favorable Ron Paul editorials - but being the "fair and balanced" guy that I am, here is another view extracted from one of my favorite websites/Patriot Post (which newsletter I subscribe to). You be the judge! Read and Learn.
(Added Note: I have not included the Ron Paul Editorial link - email me if you want it or see it by scrolling to the end of the archives at)
http://parkenfarkergroup.blogspot.com/2008_01_20_archive.html
IMHO, both Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani & Huckabee are going to make or break in Florida - if these three can't poll well there, (at least 1st or 2nd) they are just about done - and if that doesn't do it, the 5 Feb primaries will certainly tell the story, where up to 20 states and 1/3 of Americans will be voting. Only the top two candidates will survive after 5 Feb. Florida will be Giuliani's first real test, he passed up all the other earlier state's primaries to concentrate his money/ads and campaigning time in Florida, where he has canvassed/crisscrossed the state for the past 60 days.
Ron Paul also needs to finish high in Florida (against Romney/McCain/Huckabee/Giuliani) to validate his polling data - which, when allowed to be skewed by his followers with call-ins, etc - shows unbelievably high percentages of support. Now lets see if these 40% or higher phone-in polls in other states, are supported in the same numbers at the Florida voting box, with actual voters/votes, which can't be skewed by Ron Paul supporter's phone-ins or emails. I'll eat my words if Ron Paul surprises me!
Bush was elected by the Floridians twice - the first time 2000, as recalled, in a real squeaker/recounts/court cases, etc. Whomever becomes the eventual Republican nominee, can't get elected President without being first or at least a strong second in total state voting numbers - in the 29 Jan Florida primary - I think - anyone being down in the teens % or single digits % in Florida is not going to hack it - for whomever is down there in the ground clutter is an "also ran".
But that is where I think Ron Paul is going to be, and maybe even Huckabee.
I predict it will be Romney - 26 %, McCain 24% and Giuliani 20%, Huckabee in the high teens and Ron Paul in the low teens or even high single digits. Of course, all these numbers could be plus or minus 4%, and because the top three will be so close, their final percentages could put them in a different winning order. But for sure, Romney and McCain will be the top two, we'll see the final order- but I'm guessing Romney. You can mock me if I'm wrong!
Unquote!
Lets see how I did on my wonderful "predictions"?
This predicting exact election results percentages is tricky business! Even given I gave myself a plus or minus 4%. I expected the Florida election results to be a real statistical squeaker with Mitt Romney narrowly defeating John McCain. The final results were - (my 5 days earlier prediction in paren's and the actual result follows):
McCain - (24%) 35.8%
Romney (26 %) 31.1%
Giuliani (20%) 15%
Huckabee (Huckabee in the high teens) 13.3%
Paul (low teens or even high single digits) 3.2%.
As you can see, McCain's final winning numbers surprised me, but I have an explanation for that - more on that later.
Except for McCain's win - I had the order correct. And although I gave myself a plus or minis 4% points difference in my percentages, McCain's difference was almost 10% higher, Romney's was 5.1% higher, and the other three were 5% lower or much lower then my predictions.
Obviously, McCain really over-performed, Romney was a strong second, but the bottom three - under-performed. I expected Giuliani to break into the low 20's but in fact - he didn't even do as well as his campaign strategy of skipping earlier primaries, focusing in Florida - spending all his time (60 days crisscrossing the state) and $3M ad money there...... was a failure. And also, as predicted, if he didn't make a good showing, he was/and he announced today, he is history.
The main thrust of my comments/earlier prediction were actually focused on Ron Paul - a Ron Paul editorial - when I expressed strong skepticism in Ron Paul's apparent strength & stated that his various debates "call-in" polling (and other polling) numbers were extremely inflated. I said I would "eat my words" if I was proved wrong!
It was even worse then I predicted, at least I gave Paul enough credit that he was going to be in the low teens or high single digits. He wasn't even outside the 4% margin of error I gave myself, he polling 3.2% which is my version of being down in the "ground clutter", i.e. Paul not even making enough of a blip on the (political) radar screen as to be unseen!
And of course, Giuliani is supposed announce he is dropping out this morning and endorse McCain. That's not a surprise either - his main (single?) issue was the War on Terror - which also is McCain's and he too, might be thinking if he throws in his lot with McCain, McCain will reward him by picking him as his V.P. running mate.
Although Huckabee was in the low teens and ought to drop out of the race, he is soldiering on - I believe, hoping to win the southern states (probably not) and hoping to gain enough delegates to throw in his lot with and be McCain's Vice-Presidential choice- putting him over the top. The longer the Huckster sticks around, the more conservative votes he siphons off of Romney - and that too, might be the Huckabee/McCain strategy - McCain might even have an "under the table deal" to get the Huckster to stick around at least through the 5 Feb "Super Tues Primaries" - knowing that it will hurt his main competition (Romney). This will not bother McCain who appeals to Republican moderates/even independents/and some disaffected Democrats, but will hurt Romney, by Huckabee and Romney splitting the conservatives/Evangelical/vast right wing conspiracy (of which I'm a charter member!)
And don't ask me about Ron Paul anymore - he apparently is also going to stay in the race - but I don't know why? Ego? You explain it to me! I haven't understood the Ron Paul phenomenon from the get-go, still don't, but it seems that in every presidential race, we have some fringe candidate come out of the woodwork - Peroit, (Bush Sr. spoiler), Ralph Nader (Algore/Kerry spoiler), who skews the election results. And now Ron Paul, being this season's fringe candidate.
It doesn't appear that Ron Paul is going to be as much of a factor in 2008 as some of the earlier presidential election's fringe candidates have had here-to-fore. I don't want to write about Ron Paul anymore - like I said, he is down in the ground clutter - an insignificant statistic, and his presence in the race, touting his "issues" (which seems to be isolationism - cut & run in Iraq) isn't even forcing the mainstream Republican candidates to change their mainline stances/issues, as Edwards did over on the Democrat side. He is a non-factor and not worth wasting anymore time discussing. He doesn't even have a "block of delegates" that he can use to gain concessions on issues he backs- out of the front runners and it doesn't seem he will.
By contrast to Ron Paul - on the D's side, Edwards declared early on in his bid for the Democrat nomination, if he is elected, he would immediately withdraw from Iraq! His position has had a significant effect on the other two Democrat Presidential front runners - Billary and Obama.
In Billary's, Florida acceptance speech last nite, (although no Democrats campaigned and were forbidden by the DNC in the meaningless Florida Democrat Primary Election), she stated that if elected, on her first day as President (makes me shutter to type that statement!), she would call in her Military Leaders and tell them to come back with a plan to pull all our troops out of Iraq in 60 days! An amazing Billary movement to the far left -- for someone who is considered herself a "centralist." In other words, in order for her to get the far left Democrat Move-on.org/kooky voters, she has signed off all the possible cross-over disaffected Republican voters for whom the War-on-Terror is their priority issue. They certainly won't vote for the Democrat candidate now, given both Billary and Obama are saying they will cut & run immediately.
Billary's earlier stances (starting some 6 months ago?) were/was basically the same as Pres. Bush's, that she would withdraw as advised by the Military Leaders. With Edwards seemingly getting the far left fringe Kook vote by saying he would withdraw from Iraq immediately, Billary shifted to, "she would immediately withdraw all American combat troops, leaving only enough to train the Iraqi military and protect American interests (Baghdad Green Zone/International Embassies/Iraqi Central Govt, etc)." Now she has "evolved" to where she will withdraw all American Troops out of Iraq in 60 days with no caveats! Isn't this called "flip-flopping?" You tell me!
I don't want this treatise into turn into a book but will try to explain McCain's surprising win percentage. You won't hear this on Rush either. At least, I haven't heard it so far!
Reason #1 for McCain's win: A significant factor for McCain's good showing is that two very popular Florida Republican politicians, Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Mel Martinez endorsed McCain a day or two before the election.
This was big! And I would guess, accounted for at least half of McCain's surprising win. These blockbuster endorsements happened after my predictions.
As an aside - my own #1 issue in this election is Natl Defense, which happens to be McCain's also. I agree with Geo. W's position on the War on Terror and Iraq/Afghanistan exactly and so does and always has, McCain. So as far as my #1 issue, can I vote for McCain? (VS "Cut & Run" Billary/Obama/Edwards) You bet!
But I would have thought that the illegal alien issue would have had a greater impact on this election then obviously it has. Given, McCain has repeatedly and clearly stated "I get it, the people want our borders secured before any other actions are taken, i.e. Amnesty, etc" and that the notion of Amnesty is dead/history" etc. So I would have thought that a lot of folks would have backed Romney, who has been the strongest on what is my #2 campaign issue. We'll see, might make a difference yet. But it doesn't look like the
Amnesty issue it getting much traction now.
As I earlier predicted, in order to win the nomination and especially the presidency - the Republican candidate has to have a either a win or a strong 2nd place finish in Florida. McCain and Romney did this and so, are still viable candidates. Granted, it was not as close I as expected, but there is an explanation.
Reason #2 for the McCain win: The other half of McCain's surprise I think, resulted from a quirky Florida Election law, (same as present Washington election law) requiring every voter to declare their party, either Democrat of Republican? They were then given either a D or an R ballot. There was no provision for Independents!
It is being said constantly by the various talking heads that McCain's long suit is "independents" supporting him. According to the extracted quote below - Florida Elections officials were "unofficially" instructing independents to declare for one or the other party, in order to vote, which they did - most opting for Republican ballots and voting for McCain!
Although not mentioned in anything you are going to read in the MSM, Florida also had a very controversial Florida Property Tax issue on the Primary Ballot, and a lot of the Florida voters wanted to vote on this important issue. In order to do this, voters had to get one or the other party's ballot. So, surprise - surprise (to me at least - I din't know this requirement or the property issue when I made my "predictions"), these independent voters got Republican ballots and "Oh, by the way, while voting on the Florida Property Tax issue, I guess I will just check McCain as well, since I don't want to vote for either a woman (Billary) or a black (Obama) and I don't like the "Breck Girl"!"
Also a big surprise (NOT!), half of Florida is over 60, white/cross-over voters, and McCain got the majority of these votes! DAH! Who is the oldest white person in the history of the United States to run for the presidency? McCain. Who are the older white folks in Florida going to identify with? That's a no-brainer! McCain!
So, I think the late Crist/Martinez endorsements and the Florida Election laws had a lot to do with the surprising McCain win in Florida.
This quote is extracted from the linked article below.
In northern Coral Springs, near the Sawgrass Expressway and Coral Ridge Drive, David Nirenberg arrived to vote as an independent. Nevertheless, he said poll workers insisted he choose a party ballot."He said to me, 'Are you Democrat or Republican?' I said, 'Neither, I am independent.' He said, 'Well, you have to pick one,''' Nirenberg said.In Florida, only those who declare a party are allowed to cast a vote in that party's presidential primary.Nirenberg said he tried to explain to the poll worker that he should not vote on a party ballot because of his "no party affiliation" status.Nirenberg said a second poll worker was called over who agreed that independents should not use party ballots, but said they had received instructions to the contrary."He said, 'Ya know, that is kind of funny, but it was what we were told.' … I was shocked when they told me that." Nirenberg said he went ahead and voted for John McCain.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-129electionday%2C0%2C6968764%2Cprint.story
And of course, the rest is history!
Will the independent vote hold up and back McCain for the rest of the primaries? With Edwards now out of the race, it could be! When confronted with voting for either a woman or a black, many people might just cross over and vote for whoever the Republican front runner is in the remaining primaries - and right now, that's McCain. And he seems to have the big "Mo". (momentum)
I also gave a further "prediction" and said whoever wins the Florida Election will likely win their parties nomination. As far as Billary goes - Dick Morris noted that in an exit poll in Florida, many Democrat voters who voted in person in the polls, said they had changed their mind in the last 3 days to Obama - as a result of the recent S.Carolina events (Bill Klinton's fiasco) while it is thought that those that voted earlier by absentee, voted for Billary. So while Billary won by a bunch in Florida, this might not be indicative of whether these percentage will hold in the 5th Feb Primaries. As I earlier predicted, it is thought that Obama has picked up momentum, and that Billary needed a big win bad! Is Florida enough, or were there circumstances that explain her big win away? i.e. it was because of absentee voters that cast their votes before the S. Carolina final vote was known and Bill's post election remarks were made? We'll see. Stay tuned for the 5th Feb Primaries!
I said those primaries will sort out everyone - I still think that, and I still lean toward Romney and Obama giving McCain and Billary a run for their money. (and McCain doesn't have any!) (Might be the tie-breaker)
Final comment: In one of my recent posts, I said that we (Republicans) are still waiting for someone to voice a believable "Vision" to inspire the people. I listen/watched with great interest last evening - as first Romney and then McCain gave their speeches on TV last nite to their supporters. Romney cleverly took full advantage of the occasion of being on National TV to enumerate his "vision" for America. He went over all the hot button issues - point by point, giving what he intended to do, if elected, and his "vision" sounded pretty darn good to me/very inspiring IMHO.
McCain came on TV, thanked his two endorsers profusely, crediting them with his win, and gave an abbreviated version of his "vision" for America. Compared to Romney - it was not inspiring, nothing new, etc.
Supposedly, this election is all about "Change". Romney said a mouthful last nite in his speech when he said, "If either Billary or McCain are elected, you are just getting the "status quo" candidates, they are just changing chairs", they both being senators and are partly to be blamed for the present status in Washington D.C. By electing him, you get a person from outside the beltway, who would bring "change" to Washington D.C.
Final thought - Romney can fund his own campaign if he has to - and already has organization in all the 21 state having primary elections on 5 Feb. McCain is broke and doesn't. Lets see how that turns out?
So, I'm not "eating my words." I'm having cereal for breakfast, thank you! and listening to Rushbo's brilliant program opening("non-concession speech") this morning as I type this.
Rush's spin is that his stance on declaring McCain & Huckabee not being conservatives, he didn't lose. And he makes a point, in McCain's acceptance speech - he went a long ways out of his way to stake out his claim to be a "Reagan conservative" from his earliest days in politics. So it seems, McCain is moving toward Rush and not vice-versa! In other words, Rush wins again. But the MSM is saying it just the opposite! That McCain's win - is in Rush's face! Who is moving toward conservatism? Rush was and is always there! McCain is the one moving in his stance!
In conclusion, let me say this - Romney has been either the winner or a solid second in not all, at least most of the primaries to now. Until yesterday's Florida "winner-take-all" primary that gives all 57 of their delegate votes to the winner (McCain), Romney had the most delegate votes to the Republican Natl Convention. Romney has enough (personal) money, he can stay in the campaign as long as he wants to. I still think that Romney will win the Republican nomination in a squeaker - but it now seems, that depends on Huckabee and how long he sticks around? By Huckabee and Romney splitting the conservative votes and McCain gaining all the coalition of moderate/independent/ disaffected Democrat crossover voters/those not wanting to vote for either a woman or a black - McCain might just pull it off, after he being literally dead in the water/unmentioned in the MSM last summer! That's what makes campaigns interesting!
So, mock away! I remain your humble predictor but I don't intent to give percentages in the future - too risky! gk
(Please pray for our Patriot Armed Forces standing in harm’s way around the world, and for their families— Of all the gifts you can give them, PRAYER is the best!) gk
Let me review my exact prediction's words (written a full 5 days ago.)
Quote:
Several of my Ron Paul supporting friends have made sure that I get my fair share of favorable Ron Paul editorials - but being the "fair and balanced" guy that I am, here is another view extracted from one of my favorite websites/Patriot Post (which newsletter I subscribe to). You be the judge! Read and Learn.
(Added Note: I have not included the Ron Paul Editorial link - email me if you want it or see it by scrolling to the end of the archives at)
http://parkenfarkergroup.blogspot.com/2008_01_20_archive.html
IMHO, both Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani & Huckabee are going to make or break in Florida - if these three can't poll well there, (at least 1st or 2nd) they are just about done - and if that doesn't do it, the 5 Feb primaries will certainly tell the story, where up to 20 states and 1/3 of Americans will be voting. Only the top two candidates will survive after 5 Feb. Florida will be Giuliani's first real test, he passed up all the other earlier state's primaries to concentrate his money/ads and campaigning time in Florida, where he has canvassed/crisscrossed the state for the past 60 days.
Ron Paul also needs to finish high in Florida (against Romney/McCain/Huckabee/Giuliani) to validate his polling data - which, when allowed to be skewed by his followers with call-ins, etc - shows unbelievably high percentages of support. Now lets see if these 40% or higher phone-in polls in other states, are supported in the same numbers at the Florida voting box, with actual voters/votes, which can't be skewed by Ron Paul supporter's phone-ins or emails. I'll eat my words if Ron Paul surprises me!
Bush was elected by the Floridians twice - the first time 2000, as recalled, in a real squeaker/recounts/court cases, etc. Whomever becomes the eventual Republican nominee, can't get elected President without being first or at least a strong second in total state voting numbers - in the 29 Jan Florida primary - I think - anyone being down in the teens % or single digits % in Florida is not going to hack it - for whomever is down there in the ground clutter is an "also ran".
But that is where I think Ron Paul is going to be, and maybe even Huckabee.
I predict it will be Romney - 26 %, McCain 24% and Giuliani 20%, Huckabee in the high teens and Ron Paul in the low teens or even high single digits. Of course, all these numbers could be plus or minus 4%, and because the top three will be so close, their final percentages could put them in a different winning order. But for sure, Romney and McCain will be the top two, we'll see the final order- but I'm guessing Romney. You can mock me if I'm wrong!
Unquote!
Lets see how I did on my wonderful "predictions"?
This predicting exact election results percentages is tricky business! Even given I gave myself a plus or minus 4%. I expected the Florida election results to be a real statistical squeaker with Mitt Romney narrowly defeating John McCain. The final results were - (my 5 days earlier prediction in paren's and the actual result follows):
McCain - (24%) 35.8%
Romney (26 %) 31.1%
Giuliani (20%) 15%
Huckabee (Huckabee in the high teens) 13.3%
Paul (low teens or even high single digits) 3.2%.
As you can see, McCain's final winning numbers surprised me, but I have an explanation for that - more on that later.
Except for McCain's win - I had the order correct. And although I gave myself a plus or minis 4% points difference in my percentages, McCain's difference was almost 10% higher, Romney's was 5.1% higher, and the other three were 5% lower or much lower then my predictions.
Obviously, McCain really over-performed, Romney was a strong second, but the bottom three - under-performed. I expected Giuliani to break into the low 20's but in fact - he didn't even do as well as his campaign strategy of skipping earlier primaries, focusing in Florida - spending all his time (60 days crisscrossing the state) and $3M ad money there...... was a failure. And also, as predicted, if he didn't make a good showing, he was/and he announced today, he is history.
The main thrust of my comments/earlier prediction were actually focused on Ron Paul - a Ron Paul editorial - when I expressed strong skepticism in Ron Paul's apparent strength & stated that his various debates "call-in" polling (and other polling) numbers were extremely inflated. I said I would "eat my words" if I was proved wrong!
It was even worse then I predicted, at least I gave Paul enough credit that he was going to be in the low teens or high single digits. He wasn't even outside the 4% margin of error I gave myself, he polling 3.2% which is my version of being down in the "ground clutter", i.e. Paul not even making enough of a blip on the (political) radar screen as to be unseen!
And of course, Giuliani is supposed announce he is dropping out this morning and endorse McCain. That's not a surprise either - his main (single?) issue was the War on Terror - which also is McCain's and he too, might be thinking if he throws in his lot with McCain, McCain will reward him by picking him as his V.P. running mate.
Although Huckabee was in the low teens and ought to drop out of the race, he is soldiering on - I believe, hoping to win the southern states (probably not) and hoping to gain enough delegates to throw in his lot with and be McCain's Vice-Presidential choice- putting him over the top. The longer the Huckster sticks around, the more conservative votes he siphons off of Romney - and that too, might be the Huckabee/McCain strategy - McCain might even have an "under the table deal" to get the Huckster to stick around at least through the 5 Feb "Super Tues Primaries" - knowing that it will hurt his main competition (Romney). This will not bother McCain who appeals to Republican moderates/even independents/and some disaffected Democrats, but will hurt Romney, by Huckabee and Romney splitting the conservatives/Evangelical/vast right wing conspiracy (of which I'm a charter member!)
And don't ask me about Ron Paul anymore - he apparently is also going to stay in the race - but I don't know why? Ego? You explain it to me! I haven't understood the Ron Paul phenomenon from the get-go, still don't, but it seems that in every presidential race, we have some fringe candidate come out of the woodwork - Peroit, (Bush Sr. spoiler), Ralph Nader (Algore/Kerry spoiler), who skews the election results. And now Ron Paul, being this season's fringe candidate.
It doesn't appear that Ron Paul is going to be as much of a factor in 2008 as some of the earlier presidential election's fringe candidates have had here-to-fore. I don't want to write about Ron Paul anymore - like I said, he is down in the ground clutter - an insignificant statistic, and his presence in the race, touting his "issues" (which seems to be isolationism - cut & run in Iraq) isn't even forcing the mainstream Republican candidates to change their mainline stances/issues, as Edwards did over on the Democrat side. He is a non-factor and not worth wasting anymore time discussing. He doesn't even have a "block of delegates" that he can use to gain concessions on issues he backs- out of the front runners and it doesn't seem he will.
By contrast to Ron Paul - on the D's side, Edwards declared early on in his bid for the Democrat nomination, if he is elected, he would immediately withdraw from Iraq! His position has had a significant effect on the other two Democrat Presidential front runners - Billary and Obama.
In Billary's, Florida acceptance speech last nite, (although no Democrats campaigned and were forbidden by the DNC in the meaningless Florida Democrat Primary Election), she stated that if elected, on her first day as President (makes me shutter to type that statement!), she would call in her Military Leaders and tell them to come back with a plan to pull all our troops out of Iraq in 60 days! An amazing Billary movement to the far left -- for someone who is considered herself a "centralist." In other words, in order for her to get the far left Democrat Move-on.org/kooky voters, she has signed off all the possible cross-over disaffected Republican voters for whom the War-on-Terror is their priority issue. They certainly won't vote for the Democrat candidate now, given both Billary and Obama are saying they will cut & run immediately.
Billary's earlier stances (starting some 6 months ago?) were/was basically the same as Pres. Bush's, that she would withdraw as advised by the Military Leaders. With Edwards seemingly getting the far left fringe Kook vote by saying he would withdraw from Iraq immediately, Billary shifted to, "she would immediately withdraw all American combat troops, leaving only enough to train the Iraqi military and protect American interests (Baghdad Green Zone/International Embassies/Iraqi Central Govt, etc)." Now she has "evolved" to where she will withdraw all American Troops out of Iraq in 60 days with no caveats! Isn't this called "flip-flopping?" You tell me!
I don't want this treatise into turn into a book but will try to explain McCain's surprising win percentage. You won't hear this on Rush either. At least, I haven't heard it so far!
Reason #1 for McCain's win: A significant factor for McCain's good showing is that two very popular Florida Republican politicians, Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Mel Martinez endorsed McCain a day or two before the election.
This was big! And I would guess, accounted for at least half of McCain's surprising win. These blockbuster endorsements happened after my predictions.
As an aside - my own #1 issue in this election is Natl Defense, which happens to be McCain's also. I agree with Geo. W's position on the War on Terror and Iraq/Afghanistan exactly and so does and always has, McCain. So as far as my #1 issue, can I vote for McCain? (VS "Cut & Run" Billary/Obama/Edwards) You bet!
But I would have thought that the illegal alien issue would have had a greater impact on this election then obviously it has. Given, McCain has repeatedly and clearly stated "I get it, the people want our borders secured before any other actions are taken, i.e. Amnesty, etc" and that the notion of Amnesty is dead/history" etc. So I would have thought that a lot of folks would have backed Romney, who has been the strongest on what is my #2 campaign issue. We'll see, might make a difference yet. But it doesn't look like the
Amnesty issue it getting much traction now.
As I earlier predicted, in order to win the nomination and especially the presidency - the Republican candidate has to have a either a win or a strong 2nd place finish in Florida. McCain and Romney did this and so, are still viable candidates. Granted, it was not as close I as expected, but there is an explanation.
Reason #2 for the McCain win: The other half of McCain's surprise I think, resulted from a quirky Florida Election law, (same as present Washington election law) requiring every voter to declare their party, either Democrat of Republican? They were then given either a D or an R ballot. There was no provision for Independents!
It is being said constantly by the various talking heads that McCain's long suit is "independents" supporting him. According to the extracted quote below - Florida Elections officials were "unofficially" instructing independents to declare for one or the other party, in order to vote, which they did - most opting for Republican ballots and voting for McCain!
Although not mentioned in anything you are going to read in the MSM, Florida also had a very controversial Florida Property Tax issue on the Primary Ballot, and a lot of the Florida voters wanted to vote on this important issue. In order to do this, voters had to get one or the other party's ballot. So, surprise - surprise (to me at least - I din't know this requirement or the property issue when I made my "predictions"), these independent voters got Republican ballots and "Oh, by the way, while voting on the Florida Property Tax issue, I guess I will just check McCain as well, since I don't want to vote for either a woman (Billary) or a black (Obama) and I don't like the "Breck Girl"!"
Also a big surprise (NOT!), half of Florida is over 60, white/cross-over voters, and McCain got the majority of these votes! DAH! Who is the oldest white person in the history of the United States to run for the presidency? McCain. Who are the older white folks in Florida going to identify with? That's a no-brainer! McCain!
So, I think the late Crist/Martinez endorsements and the Florida Election laws had a lot to do with the surprising McCain win in Florida.
This quote is extracted from the linked article below.
In northern Coral Springs, near the Sawgrass Expressway and Coral Ridge Drive, David Nirenberg arrived to vote as an independent. Nevertheless, he said poll workers insisted he choose a party ballot."He said to me, 'Are you Democrat or Republican?' I said, 'Neither, I am independent.' He said, 'Well, you have to pick one,''' Nirenberg said.In Florida, only those who declare a party are allowed to cast a vote in that party's presidential primary.Nirenberg said he tried to explain to the poll worker that he should not vote on a party ballot because of his "no party affiliation" status.Nirenberg said a second poll worker was called over who agreed that independents should not use party ballots, but said they had received instructions to the contrary."He said, 'Ya know, that is kind of funny, but it was what we were told.' … I was shocked when they told me that." Nirenberg said he went ahead and voted for John McCain.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-129electionday%2C0%2C6968764%2Cprint.story
And of course, the rest is history!
Will the independent vote hold up and back McCain for the rest of the primaries? With Edwards now out of the race, it could be! When confronted with voting for either a woman or a black, many people might just cross over and vote for whoever the Republican front runner is in the remaining primaries - and right now, that's McCain. And he seems to have the big "Mo". (momentum)
I also gave a further "prediction" and said whoever wins the Florida Election will likely win their parties nomination. As far as Billary goes - Dick Morris noted that in an exit poll in Florida, many Democrat voters who voted in person in the polls, said they had changed their mind in the last 3 days to Obama - as a result of the recent S.Carolina events (Bill Klinton's fiasco) while it is thought that those that voted earlier by absentee, voted for Billary. So while Billary won by a bunch in Florida, this might not be indicative of whether these percentage will hold in the 5th Feb Primaries. As I earlier predicted, it is thought that Obama has picked up momentum, and that Billary needed a big win bad! Is Florida enough, or were there circumstances that explain her big win away? i.e. it was because of absentee voters that cast their votes before the S. Carolina final vote was known and Bill's post election remarks were made? We'll see. Stay tuned for the 5th Feb Primaries!
I said those primaries will sort out everyone - I still think that, and I still lean toward Romney and Obama giving McCain and Billary a run for their money. (and McCain doesn't have any!) (Might be the tie-breaker)
Final comment: In one of my recent posts, I said that we (Republicans) are still waiting for someone to voice a believable "Vision" to inspire the people. I listen/watched with great interest last evening - as first Romney and then McCain gave their speeches on TV last nite to their supporters. Romney cleverly took full advantage of the occasion of being on National TV to enumerate his "vision" for America. He went over all the hot button issues - point by point, giving what he intended to do, if elected, and his "vision" sounded pretty darn good to me/very inspiring IMHO.
McCain came on TV, thanked his two endorsers profusely, crediting them with his win, and gave an abbreviated version of his "vision" for America. Compared to Romney - it was not inspiring, nothing new, etc.
Supposedly, this election is all about "Change". Romney said a mouthful last nite in his speech when he said, "If either Billary or McCain are elected, you are just getting the "status quo" candidates, they are just changing chairs", they both being senators and are partly to be blamed for the present status in Washington D.C. By electing him, you get a person from outside the beltway, who would bring "change" to Washington D.C.
Final thought - Romney can fund his own campaign if he has to - and already has organization in all the 21 state having primary elections on 5 Feb. McCain is broke and doesn't. Lets see how that turns out?
So, I'm not "eating my words." I'm having cereal for breakfast, thank you! and listening to Rushbo's brilliant program opening("non-concession speech") this morning as I type this.
Rush's spin is that his stance on declaring McCain & Huckabee not being conservatives, he didn't lose. And he makes a point, in McCain's acceptance speech - he went a long ways out of his way to stake out his claim to be a "Reagan conservative" from his earliest days in politics. So it seems, McCain is moving toward Rush and not vice-versa! In other words, Rush wins again. But the MSM is saying it just the opposite! That McCain's win - is in Rush's face! Who is moving toward conservatism? Rush was and is always there! McCain is the one moving in his stance!
In conclusion, let me say this - Romney has been either the winner or a solid second in not all, at least most of the primaries to now. Until yesterday's Florida "winner-take-all" primary that gives all 57 of their delegate votes to the winner (McCain), Romney had the most delegate votes to the Republican Natl Convention. Romney has enough (personal) money, he can stay in the campaign as long as he wants to. I still think that Romney will win the Republican nomination in a squeaker - but it now seems, that depends on Huckabee and how long he sticks around? By Huckabee and Romney splitting the conservative votes and McCain gaining all the coalition of moderate/independent/ disaffected Democrat crossover voters/those not wanting to vote for either a woman or a black - McCain might just pull it off, after he being literally dead in the water/unmentioned in the MSM last summer! That's what makes campaigns interesting!
So, mock away! I remain your humble predictor but I don't intent to give percentages in the future - too risky! gk
(Please pray for our Patriot Armed Forces standing in harm’s way around the world, and for their families— Of all the gifts you can give them, PRAYER is the best!) gk
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
WELCOME, DINOCRAT ROSSI POSSE!
Jobs! Jobs! Jobs!
Anyone remember when Democrats actually cared about this?
In thier move to the extreme left, they have abandoned the blur collar worker to become the party that has no direction, No hope for the future, No real Ideas of their own.
The biggest thing recruiting new supporters to Dino Rossi, Is the current governer herself.
Folks who voted for her last time, are now saying, "Why should I pay for my health care and the Health care of people who don't want to work?" She and the State Democrats are proposing to pull that money out of my paycheck to do it. I thought that we didn't have a State Income Tax.
But it appears that she is trying to sneak one in under the guise of Universal Health Care."
This is a great gift! Going out and recruiting new supporters for the challengers with bad ideas that hurt the working class. Punish the family who make a combined 50 to 60 thousand a year. Keep proposing a State Income Tax too, while you're at it.
Who is this helping? Are they American Citizens? Are they those whom are disinterested in working? I'm skeptical. The working poor already have a state health program. This is pandering to the socialists, who want something for nothing paid for by you and me. Guys and Gals with JOBS.
p.s. State legislators, keep focusing on impeaching Bush, too. That's bringing more folks with common sense to Rossi also. The State voters gave you consent to legislate on our State Policies, and you,ve fumbled a 2 billion dollar surplus, and put us back into the red. Your own State and County employees have a class action lawsuit over your mismanagement of transfering PERS 2 to PERS 3 retirement accounts. This oversight will cost Stae propertyowners (taxpayers) an additional 5.5 million dollars. No wonder you are taking the back door approach to raise car tabs, allow retroactive property tax increases, and propose to create a State INcome TAx, Increase the gas tax, increase the sales tax, and add a penalty to our paychecks to pay for health care for those who choose not to enter the job market.
To my Democrat Friends:
Thank you for recruiting new GOP support from those who built your party in the 20th century.
The 21st century GOP is a big tent, and the Blue collar worker is just as welcome now as when you came over to vote for Reagan Twice to elect him to two slam dunk landslide victories. It's okay when the rest of you vote for Dino. It is still a secret ballot...
Anyone remember when Democrats actually cared about this?
In thier move to the extreme left, they have abandoned the blur collar worker to become the party that has no direction, No hope for the future, No real Ideas of their own.
The biggest thing recruiting new supporters to Dino Rossi, Is the current governer herself.
Folks who voted for her last time, are now saying, "Why should I pay for my health care and the Health care of people who don't want to work?" She and the State Democrats are proposing to pull that money out of my paycheck to do it. I thought that we didn't have a State Income Tax.
But it appears that she is trying to sneak one in under the guise of Universal Health Care."
This is a great gift! Going out and recruiting new supporters for the challengers with bad ideas that hurt the working class. Punish the family who make a combined 50 to 60 thousand a year. Keep proposing a State Income Tax too, while you're at it.
Who is this helping? Are they American Citizens? Are they those whom are disinterested in working? I'm skeptical. The working poor already have a state health program. This is pandering to the socialists, who want something for nothing paid for by you and me. Guys and Gals with JOBS.
p.s. State legislators, keep focusing on impeaching Bush, too. That's bringing more folks with common sense to Rossi also. The State voters gave you consent to legislate on our State Policies, and you,ve fumbled a 2 billion dollar surplus, and put us back into the red. Your own State and County employees have a class action lawsuit over your mismanagement of transfering PERS 2 to PERS 3 retirement accounts. This oversight will cost Stae propertyowners (taxpayers) an additional 5.5 million dollars. No wonder you are taking the back door approach to raise car tabs, allow retroactive property tax increases, and propose to create a State INcome TAx, Increase the gas tax, increase the sales tax, and add a penalty to our paychecks to pay for health care for those who choose not to enter the job market.
To my Democrat Friends:
Thank you for recruiting new GOP support from those who built your party in the 20th century.
The 21st century GOP is a big tent, and the Blue collar worker is just as welcome now as when you came over to vote for Reagan Twice to elect him to two slam dunk landslide victories. It's okay when the rest of you vote for Dino. It is still a secret ballot...
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
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