Or can one?
Currently, there are several Dark Horse candidates among the GOP presidential hopefuls:
Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes, Jerry Ralph Curry, and Ron Paul.
Two dark horses have dropped out:
Tom Tancredo and Sam Brownback.
Why should we pay attention to any of these guys?
Isn’t there a clear favorite among Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, or Mitt Romney?
Why not John McCain or Fred Thompson?
Depending on which poll you read and from which state, these five gentlemen seem to be the top two tiers, and they move back and forth from first tier to second tier.
It appears that the Democrats have a similar situation with 3 front runners and a bunch of dark horses. (I’m not quite interested in them at the moment.)
Let’s set the wayback machine to 1880:
Chicago, Illinois;
The Republican National Convention is deadlocked by three sets of delegates who are stubbornly supporting their candidates.
As the first Ballot was cast the rankings were as follows
1) War Hero Ulysses S. Grant for a third Term of Office. 304 votes
2) Senator James G. Blaine 284 votes
3) Treasury Secretary John Sherman 093 votes
4) Minor candidates handful
379 votes were required to win the nomination and by dinnertime, 18 roll call votes were taken with very little movement by the delegates. When the convention resumed on Tuesday morning Sherman’s totals had increased to 116 then dropped again.
By the 34th ballot roll call, Wisconsin shocked everyone with 16 votes for Senator James A. Garfield (who was Sherman’s campaign manager and originally had nominated Sherman) Garfield jumped up and tried to decline the nomination, but was gaveled down and declared out of order by the chair. Now the score stood:
1) Grant 312 votes
2) Blaine 275 votes
3) Sherman 107 votes
4) Garfield 017 votes
The 35th ballot casting gave Garfield a total of 50 votes
The Roll Call for the 36th Ballot and Sherman ceding his support to Garfield gave him 395 votes and the nomination.
Why on earth is this relevant to 2008? Depending on which poll you go to most seem to have the GOP front runners much closer matched than they were in 1880. Just a Point to Ponder…Don’t Take my word for it,
Read Kenneth D. Ackerman’s 2003 book, Dark Horse: the Surprise Election and Political Murder of James A. Garfield
Friday, December 28, 2007
Thursday, December 27, 2007
ANOTHER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE!
(Guest Writer: gk)
A friend wrote me this email:
Gen. Jerry Ralph Curry believes we are headed to a brokered convention. He missed getting signatures for the WA primary but he's on the ballot for the Oklahoma, Arizona and Louisiana Primaries so far and working in other states. As soon as he raises enough $ he will make his announcement so as to be taken seriously. I met with him on Saturday and he has the presence and stature of a president. He believes God has called on him for such a time as this. Keep your ears open and your eyes on this man.
Visit his website: http://www.curryforamerica.com/
========================================
My Comments back - gk
Gen. Curry sounds like he has a lot of great credentials and might make a good V.P. I think he is much too little too late for the presidential nomination.
Gen Curry might well be right that this Republican Convention and it's nominee might be a "brokered" presidential candidate, but I believe it is a long/long shot! Hasn't happened in a long time if ever - 1952 convention - Eisenhower?
A brokered convention would presuppose that there would be a protracted deadlock at the convention where repeated votes are taken and no one candidate can achieve enough delegate votes to win the majority. (which in and of itself is hard to imagine - given our American preoccupation with expediency and wanting instant results in everything). This would presuppose a deadlock between two front runners with neither side's backers wanting to yield or compromise, and so an unknown such as Gen. Curry would end up being nominated (from the floor?) as the compromise candidate, with the frustrated convention swinging their votes to him, after a number of deadlocked ballots - with both the front runners end up being out in the cold. I just can't see that happening, unless Gen. Curry builds a lot of name recognition/stature between now and August and I don't see that happening.
I don't doubt there are a few people out there that could pull off being a compromise candidate, such as Mississippi governor Haley Barbour (former RNC chair - lots of people "owe" him for their elections) but I just don't see Gen. Curry as being in that category at this point. It takes momentum and at this moment in time, Gen. Curry is dead in the water (translation - no one knows him, he has no MSM name recognition, no backing, no money, no organization, no national headlines type accomplishments, etc. The only thing Gen Curry has at this moment - is the desire to become president - there are a lot of squares he needs to fill between wanting to be president and becoming president!)
I think I am a pretty savvy political observer, and I hadn't ever heard the name of Gen. Curry in my life before your email. So, I think the odds of a "brokered (deadlocked) convention" and Gen. Curry being the compromise candidate - are about nil at this moment in time. Anything is possible - but IMHO, it would probably take something like a series of 9-11's where the public would start thinking about a known successful military man as the national leader ala Eisenhower - to stop these attacks or some such "once in the history of the country event(s)" to draft someone like Gen. Curry and his credentials. Gen. Petraeus - riding his credentials as having engineered the successful surge could pull this off - i.e., being nominated in a brokered convention when our nation was under attack by terrorists and people were looking for someone of military stature to deal with it. That's incidentally is Giuliani's argument/long suit - too.
I think that in politics, timing is everything - most of the present presidential candidates have been long time announced candidates, except Thompson, and even he was in the speculation before announcing. And even Thompson might have - looks like, didn't take advantage of "timing", waited too long. And of course, with the first primaries in a few days, Gen. Curry is really behind in his announcements - presidential bid. I think that that train left the station at least a year and a half ago.
Running for president is all about name recognition, backing, money, who "owes" who for what previous favor. Name recognition wise - if Gen Curry were a "Gen Petraeus" being feted for turning the situation around in Iraq - he might ride that wave right into the White House, ala Gen Eisenhower after WWII. But being Transportation Honcho is not the usual springboard to being drafted into the presidency. I don't doubt that Gen Curry is a very capable person - all Generals (that I have known and believe me, I have known a bunch) have large egos and some level of accomplishments - otherwise they wouldn't be generals, that's a very exclusive club and you have had to have shown a lot of people a lot of achievements just to make one star, never mind two. It takes congressional approval to be named one star - lots of people don't know that. And if one congress person black-balls you, you don't make it. Kind of a gentleman's agreement. So you really have to have some political skills as well as leadership skills to become a general. But I digress- I was talking about "name recognition, backing, money and who "owes" you.
When Reagan first took several runs at the presidency - he was an "also ran" cuz he didn't have any of these essentials to run for president either. He was/became almost a classic case as how you "get" these qualities.
Although Reagan had been the long time Actors and Screen writer's Guild president - and of course, a Hollywood star - he really didn't have any national recognition for anything political. He actually was a re-treaded Democrat for heaven's sake, switching parties in 1962 and gave a speech supporting Goldwater for president in 1964! In some of his first political moves after losing in his several bids for the Republican presidential nomination, Reagan first got a job as weekly national editorial writer for some news papers, and was GE's spokesman going from plant to plant nation-wide giving GE employees a rah-rah speech to believe in America and it's industrial spirit, and Reagan thereby begin to build a national wide recognition as a conservative commentator.
This quote is from the Wikipedia -
Born in Illinois, Reagan moved to Los Angeles in the 1930s, where he became an actor, president of the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), and a spokesman for General Electric. Reagan became involved in politics during his work for G.E. and switched from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party in 1962. After delivering a rousing speech in support of Barry Goldwater's presidential candidacy in 1964, he was persuaded to seek the California Governorship, winning two years later and again in 1970. He was defeated in his run for the Republican presidential nomination in 1968 as well as 1976, but won both the nomination and election in 1980.
unquote
After building his following and credentials as Calif governor, where he took over the CA. governorship with a several billion dollar deficit and ended up leaving it with a several billion dollar surplus, he honed his credentials as one who could trim governments and govt spending, he finally was nominated presidential candidate!
So, he went from "also ran" to "Savior of the Republican Party" The rest is history - as they say. But key to his being nominated as Presidential Candidate, he spent the years of 76-79 going around the country giving campaign fund raising speeches at rubber chicken events for everyone running for dog catcher to senator all over the United States, God only knows how much rubber chicken he ate! But the point is, he built up people/politicians in offices at all levels nation-wide who "owed" him for being elected to whatever it was they were elected to, so when it came to nominating a presidential candidate in 1980, he had hundreds of politicians, both local/state/federal - many of whom are automatic delegates to the Republican Convention that "owed" him and voted for him. He was a shoo-in.
Also, of course, national organization counts and all that takes money, ask either Tancredo or Duncan or Biden or whomever candidate is down in the 1% national poll wise knows how that works! Gen. Curry doesn't have any money. If you are independently wealthy, like a Forbes or a Peroit, it helps! Money is the life blood of politics and without it, basically, you can't get your message out or build up any kind of ground swell, and sometimes, even if you have it, (Ron Paul) you still can't cuz you lack charisma or a vision that resonates with the people, etc. You can also ask Katsup Kerry or Forbes if spending your own money to get your message out works, it didn't for them!
Gen Curry has a lot to learn about national politics. I don't know what he can do at this point to fill these essential squares, it took Reagan a 20 year period from basically 1960 on - to gain enough recognition/fill enough squares to win the presidential nomination in 1980 - but if Gen. Curry could get one of the front 2008 Republican Nominee runners to let him to give a prime-time (nominating or key-note) speech at the upcoming Republican Convention, and it end up being a gang-busters/show stopping speech - it would help him a lot and gives him a place to start! Reagan used that convention speech mechanism several times to build his stature and following. If I'm not mistaken, Obama also gave a speech at the last Democratic Convention?
But it takes a lot of preparation by supposed presidential candidates to get to where the Republican Convention delegates take you seriously. I just don't see how Gen. Curry can make up all that ground from a standing start in Dec. of 2007? I don't think entering a few primaries is going to do it, I'd guess he is going to be down in the 1% of the vote category in those states - not exactly building up a huge block of delegates in the primaries.
Good luck with your Gen. Curry! Don't want to be a wet blanket but that's the reality of presidential nominating processes as I see it. gk
http://www.blogger.com/
http://www.blogger.com/
(Please pray for our Patriot Armed Forces standing in harm’s way around the world, and for their families— Of all the gifts you can give them, PRAYER is the best!) gk
A friend wrote me this email:
Gen. Jerry Ralph Curry believes we are headed to a brokered convention. He missed getting signatures for the WA primary but he's on the ballot for the Oklahoma, Arizona and Louisiana Primaries so far and working in other states. As soon as he raises enough $ he will make his announcement so as to be taken seriously. I met with him on Saturday and he has the presence and stature of a president. He believes God has called on him for such a time as this. Keep your ears open and your eyes on this man.
Visit his website: http://www.curryforamerica.com/
========================================
My Comments back - gk
Gen. Curry sounds like he has a lot of great credentials and might make a good V.P. I think he is much too little too late for the presidential nomination.
Gen Curry might well be right that this Republican Convention and it's nominee might be a "brokered" presidential candidate, but I believe it is a long/long shot! Hasn't happened in a long time if ever - 1952 convention - Eisenhower?
A brokered convention would presuppose that there would be a protracted deadlock at the convention where repeated votes are taken and no one candidate can achieve enough delegate votes to win the majority. (which in and of itself is hard to imagine - given our American preoccupation with expediency and wanting instant results in everything). This would presuppose a deadlock between two front runners with neither side's backers wanting to yield or compromise, and so an unknown such as Gen. Curry would end up being nominated (from the floor?) as the compromise candidate, with the frustrated convention swinging their votes to him, after a number of deadlocked ballots - with both the front runners end up being out in the cold. I just can't see that happening, unless Gen. Curry builds a lot of name recognition/stature between now and August and I don't see that happening.
I don't doubt there are a few people out there that could pull off being a compromise candidate, such as Mississippi governor Haley Barbour (former RNC chair - lots of people "owe" him for their elections) but I just don't see Gen. Curry as being in that category at this point. It takes momentum and at this moment in time, Gen. Curry is dead in the water (translation - no one knows him, he has no MSM name recognition, no backing, no money, no organization, no national headlines type accomplishments, etc. The only thing Gen Curry has at this moment - is the desire to become president - there are a lot of squares he needs to fill between wanting to be president and becoming president!)
I think I am a pretty savvy political observer, and I hadn't ever heard the name of Gen. Curry in my life before your email. So, I think the odds of a "brokered (deadlocked) convention" and Gen. Curry being the compromise candidate - are about nil at this moment in time. Anything is possible - but IMHO, it would probably take something like a series of 9-11's where the public would start thinking about a known successful military man as the national leader ala Eisenhower - to stop these attacks or some such "once in the history of the country event(s)" to draft someone like Gen. Curry and his credentials. Gen. Petraeus - riding his credentials as having engineered the successful surge could pull this off - i.e., being nominated in a brokered convention when our nation was under attack by terrorists and people were looking for someone of military stature to deal with it. That's incidentally is Giuliani's argument/long suit - too.
I think that in politics, timing is everything - most of the present presidential candidates have been long time announced candidates, except Thompson, and even he was in the speculation before announcing. And even Thompson might have - looks like, didn't take advantage of "timing", waited too long. And of course, with the first primaries in a few days, Gen. Curry is really behind in his announcements - presidential bid. I think that that train left the station at least a year and a half ago.
Running for president is all about name recognition, backing, money, who "owes" who for what previous favor. Name recognition wise - if Gen Curry were a "Gen Petraeus" being feted for turning the situation around in Iraq - he might ride that wave right into the White House, ala Gen Eisenhower after WWII. But being Transportation Honcho is not the usual springboard to being drafted into the presidency. I don't doubt that Gen Curry is a very capable person - all Generals (that I have known and believe me, I have known a bunch) have large egos and some level of accomplishments - otherwise they wouldn't be generals, that's a very exclusive club and you have had to have shown a lot of people a lot of achievements just to make one star, never mind two. It takes congressional approval to be named one star - lots of people don't know that. And if one congress person black-balls you, you don't make it. Kind of a gentleman's agreement. So you really have to have some political skills as well as leadership skills to become a general. But I digress- I was talking about "name recognition, backing, money and who "owes" you.
When Reagan first took several runs at the presidency - he was an "also ran" cuz he didn't have any of these essentials to run for president either. He was/became almost a classic case as how you "get" these qualities.
Although Reagan had been the long time Actors and Screen writer's Guild president - and of course, a Hollywood star - he really didn't have any national recognition for anything political. He actually was a re-treaded Democrat for heaven's sake, switching parties in 1962 and gave a speech supporting Goldwater for president in 1964! In some of his first political moves after losing in his several bids for the Republican presidential nomination, Reagan first got a job as weekly national editorial writer for some news papers, and was GE's spokesman going from plant to plant nation-wide giving GE employees a rah-rah speech to believe in America and it's industrial spirit, and Reagan thereby begin to build a national wide recognition as a conservative commentator.
This quote is from the Wikipedia -
Born in Illinois, Reagan moved to Los Angeles in the 1930s, where he became an actor, president of the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), and a spokesman for General Electric. Reagan became involved in politics during his work for G.E. and switched from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party in 1962. After delivering a rousing speech in support of Barry Goldwater's presidential candidacy in 1964, he was persuaded to seek the California Governorship, winning two years later and again in 1970. He was defeated in his run for the Republican presidential nomination in 1968 as well as 1976, but won both the nomination and election in 1980.
unquote
After building his following and credentials as Calif governor, where he took over the CA. governorship with a several billion dollar deficit and ended up leaving it with a several billion dollar surplus, he honed his credentials as one who could trim governments and govt spending, he finally was nominated presidential candidate!
So, he went from "also ran" to "Savior of the Republican Party" The rest is history - as they say. But key to his being nominated as Presidential Candidate, he spent the years of 76-79 going around the country giving campaign fund raising speeches at rubber chicken events for everyone running for dog catcher to senator all over the United States, God only knows how much rubber chicken he ate! But the point is, he built up people/politicians in offices at all levels nation-wide who "owed" him for being elected to whatever it was they were elected to, so when it came to nominating a presidential candidate in 1980, he had hundreds of politicians, both local/state/federal - many of whom are automatic delegates to the Republican Convention that "owed" him and voted for him. He was a shoo-in.
Also, of course, national organization counts and all that takes money, ask either Tancredo or Duncan or Biden or whomever candidate is down in the 1% national poll wise knows how that works! Gen. Curry doesn't have any money. If you are independently wealthy, like a Forbes or a Peroit, it helps! Money is the life blood of politics and without it, basically, you can't get your message out or build up any kind of ground swell, and sometimes, even if you have it, (Ron Paul) you still can't cuz you lack charisma or a vision that resonates with the people, etc. You can also ask Katsup Kerry or Forbes if spending your own money to get your message out works, it didn't for them!
Gen Curry has a lot to learn about national politics. I don't know what he can do at this point to fill these essential squares, it took Reagan a 20 year period from basically 1960 on - to gain enough recognition/fill enough squares to win the presidential nomination in 1980 - but if Gen. Curry could get one of the front 2008 Republican Nominee runners to let him to give a prime-time (nominating or key-note) speech at the upcoming Republican Convention, and it end up being a gang-busters/show stopping speech - it would help him a lot and gives him a place to start! Reagan used that convention speech mechanism several times to build his stature and following. If I'm not mistaken, Obama also gave a speech at the last Democratic Convention?
But it takes a lot of preparation by supposed presidential candidates to get to where the Republican Convention delegates take you seriously. I just don't see how Gen. Curry can make up all that ground from a standing start in Dec. of 2007? I don't think entering a few primaries is going to do it, I'd guess he is going to be down in the 1% of the vote category in those states - not exactly building up a huge block of delegates in the primaries.
Good luck with your Gen. Curry! Don't want to be a wet blanket but that's the reality of presidential nominating processes as I see it. gk
http://www.blogger.com/
http://www.blogger.com/
(Please pray for our Patriot Armed Forces standing in harm’s way around the world, and for their families— Of all the gifts you can give them, PRAYER is the best!) gk
WORLD WAR ONE SURVIVING VETERANS
According to the Associated Press on December 21st and the Veterans Affairs Department there are only two remaining World War One United States Veterans:
Harry Richard Landis, Age 108 of Sun City Center, Florida
Frank Buckles, 106, of Charles Town, West Virginia.
In addition, still living in the Great State of Washington is the last known Canadian Veteran:
John Babcock, 107, of Spokane, Washington served in the Canadian army.
In 2007 we lost several of our World War One heroes including the last Woman Veteran of WWI.
Over 4.7 million men and women joined the service between 1917 and 1918 To serve and fight the War to End All Wars.
Harry Richard Landis, Age 108 of Sun City Center, Florida
Frank Buckles, 106, of Charles Town, West Virginia.
In addition, still living in the Great State of Washington is the last known Canadian Veteran:
John Babcock, 107, of Spokane, Washington served in the Canadian army.
In 2007 we lost several of our World War One heroes including the last Woman Veteran of WWI.
Over 4.7 million men and women joined the service between 1917 and 1918 To serve and fight the War to End All Wars.
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