Shirley Forslof downgraded her expert prediction from 55% to 45%, and as I predicted earlier over at Sam Taylor's THA BLOG, that turnout will be 40% maximum, and probably less.
You guys who read me and especially those who disagree with me wouldn't want my ignorant prediction to be more accurate than Shirley or her understudy Pete's expert predictions.
While Shirley used Pete's historical research, and their hopefulness for Mail only balloting to save the day and bring more participation to the political process, along with their advanced technologies that they have for making these predictions...
...I just swirled sockeye entrails in my dog's dish and predicted that Folks would participate even less than in the past:
1) The eggs told me 40%
2) The algae in the entrails told me that most people would be uninterested until fall,
3) And the length of time that all that swirling took told me that most folks would forget the deadline and find their ballots several days later under the pile of bills that they were trying so hard to ignore...
Shirley's Expert Prediction:
55% originally
45% downgraded
Poindexter's JuJu prediction: Less than 40% Originally and currently.
Now get out there and turn in your Ballot Dammittttt!!!!
unless you want for me to be correct.
(Now, who ya gonna believe? Me or your eyes? -Chicolini to Mrs. Teasdale)
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
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2 comments:
I'm a little surprised by the low turnout. I expected high Democract turnout thanks to contested primary races like the 40th LD Senate seat and I expected high Republican turnout because of the high number of contested PCO races. Contested PCOs and PCO candidates are out there petitioning their precincts to vote.
But hey what do I know, I'm still new at this. Next time I'll try the sockeye entrails approach to voter turnout forecasting.
primaries seem to be low.
the usual supects on both sides will almost always vote.
<20% D
<20% R
<01% Other active politicos...Green Libertarian, etc.
but for the other 60%+
most are usually uninterested during primaries and many are uninterested during the general.
These are folks in my opinion who have 40 to 60 hour work weeks and their off time is not focused on politics, but rather their:
1)Family
2)Jobs/business
3)Recreation
most players in the political spectrum lose sight of this.
The top 2 primary doesn't help like it's supporters are deluded into thinking.
The Mail only voting has an impact that creates many to forget about voting until it's too late
The PCO races are only important to those 20% on either side.
I'm not omitting third party activists, it's just that they account for a very small % of the usual suspects.
For my new political buddies, don't let this discourage you, rather, maybe you can figure out a way to get those other 60% motivated.
Usually they get motivated "against" someone who attacks those 3 priorities of theirs.
I came up with this by swirling Deer entrails...
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