(Guest Writer: gk)
(Folks, before we begin with gk's column, I have found pictures for all my authors...I hope they forgive me...-Dexter)
Well, well, well, let the mocking begin! I missed my Florida Election percentages by a skosh!
Let me review my exact prediction's words (written a full 5 days ago.)
Quote:
Several of my Ron Paul supporting friends have made sure that I get my fair share of favorable Ron Paul editorials - but being the "fair and balanced" guy that I am, here is another view extracted from one of my favorite websites/Patriot Post (which newsletter I subscribe to). You be the judge! Read and Learn.
(Added Note: I have not included the Ron Paul Editorial link - email me if you want it or see it by scrolling to the end of the archives at)
http://parkenfarkergroup.blogspot.com/2008_01_20_archive.html
IMHO, both Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani & Huckabee are going to make or break in Florida - if these three can't poll well there, (at least 1st or 2nd) they are just about done - and if that doesn't do it, the 5 Feb primaries will certainly tell the story, where up to 20 states and 1/3 of Americans will be voting. Only the top two candidates will survive after 5 Feb. Florida will be Giuliani's first real test, he passed up all the other earlier state's primaries to concentrate his money/ads and campaigning time in Florida, where he has canvassed/crisscrossed the state for the past 60 days.
Ron Paul also needs to finish high in Florida (against Romney/McCain/Huckabee/Giuliani) to validate his polling data - which, when allowed to be skewed by his followers with call-ins, etc - shows unbelievably high percentages of support. Now lets see if these 40% or higher phone-in polls in other states, are supported in the same numbers at the Florida voting box, with actual voters/votes, which can't be skewed by Ron Paul supporter's phone-ins or emails. I'll eat my words if Ron Paul surprises me!
Bush was elected by the Floridians twice - the first time 2000, as recalled, in a real squeaker/recounts/court cases, etc. Whomever becomes the eventual Republican nominee, can't get elected President without being first or at least a strong second in total state voting numbers - in the 29 Jan Florida primary - I think - anyone being down in the teens % or single digits % in Florida is not going to hack it - for whomever is down there in the ground clutter is an "also ran".
But that is where I think Ron Paul is going to be, and maybe even Huckabee.
I predict it will be Romney - 26 %, McCain 24% and Giuliani 20%, Huckabee in the high teens and Ron Paul in the low teens or even high single digits. Of course, all these numbers could be plus or minus 4%, and because the top three will be so close, their final percentages could put them in a different winning order. But for sure, Romney and McCain will be the top two, we'll see the final order- but I'm guessing Romney. You can mock me if I'm wrong!
Unquote!
Lets see how I did on my wonderful "predictions"?
This predicting exact election results percentages is tricky business! Even given I gave myself a plus or minus 4%. I expected the Florida election results to be a real statistical squeaker with Mitt Romney narrowly defeating John McCain. The final results were - (my 5 days earlier prediction in paren's and the actual result follows):
McCain - (24%) 35.8%
Romney (26 %) 31.1%
Giuliani (20%) 15%
Huckabee (Huckabee in the high teens) 13.3%
Paul (low teens or even high single digits) 3.2%.
As you can see, McCain's final winning numbers surprised me, but I have an explanation for that - more on that later.
Except for McCain's win - I had the order correct. And although I gave myself a plus or minis 4% points difference in my percentages, McCain's difference was almost 10% higher, Romney's was 5.1% higher, and the other three were 5% lower or much lower then my predictions.
Obviously, McCain really over-performed, Romney was a strong second, but the bottom three - under-performed. I expected Giuliani to break into the low 20's but in fact - he didn't even do as well as his campaign strategy of skipping earlier primaries, focusing in Florida - spending all his time (60 days crisscrossing the state) and $3M ad money there...... was a failure. And also, as predicted, if he didn't make a good showing, he was/and he announced today, he is history.
The main thrust of my comments/earlier prediction were actually focused on Ron Paul - a Ron Paul editorial - when I expressed strong skepticism in Ron Paul's apparent strength & stated that his various debates "call-in" polling (and other polling) numbers were extremely inflated. I said I would "eat my words" if I was proved wrong!
It was even worse then I predicted, at least I gave Paul enough credit that he was going to be in the low teens or high single digits. He wasn't even outside the 4% margin of error I gave myself, he polling 3.2% which is my version of being down in the "ground clutter", i.e. Paul not even making enough of a blip on the (political) radar screen as to be unseen!
And of course, Giuliani is supposed announce he is dropping out this morning and endorse McCain. That's not a surprise either - his main (single?) issue was the War on Terror - which also is McCain's and he too, might be thinking if he throws in his lot with McCain, McCain will reward him by picking him as his V.P. running mate.
Although Huckabee was in the low teens and ought to drop out of the race, he is soldiering on - I believe, hoping to win the southern states (probably not) and hoping to gain enough delegates to throw in his lot with and be McCain's Vice-Presidential choice- putting him over the top. The longer the Huckster sticks around, the more conservative votes he siphons off of Romney - and that too, might be the Huckabee/McCain strategy - McCain might even have an "under the table deal" to get the Huckster to stick around at least through the 5 Feb "Super Tues Primaries" - knowing that it will hurt his main competition (Romney). This will not bother McCain who appeals to Republican moderates/even independents/and some disaffected Democrats, but will hurt Romney, by Huckabee and Romney splitting the conservatives/Evangelical/vast right wing conspiracy (of which I'm a charter member!)
And don't ask me about Ron Paul anymore - he apparently is also going to stay in the race - but I don't know why? Ego? You explain it to me! I haven't understood the Ron Paul phenomenon from the get-go, still don't, but it seems that in every presidential race, we have some fringe candidate come out of the woodwork - Peroit, (Bush Sr. spoiler), Ralph Nader (Algore/Kerry spoiler), who skews the election results. And now Ron Paul, being this season's fringe candidate.
It doesn't appear that Ron Paul is going to be as much of a factor in 2008 as some of the earlier presidential election's fringe candidates have had here-to-fore. I don't want to write about Ron Paul anymore - like I said, he is down in the ground clutter - an insignificant statistic, and his presence in the race, touting his "issues" (which seems to be isolationism - cut & run in Iraq) isn't even forcing the mainstream Republican candidates to change their mainline stances/issues, as Edwards did over on the Democrat side. He is a non-factor and not worth wasting anymore time discussing. He doesn't even have a "block of delegates" that he can use to gain concessions on issues he backs- out of the front runners and it doesn't seem he will.
By contrast to Ron Paul - on the D's side, Edwards declared early on in his bid for the Democrat nomination, if he is elected, he would immediately withdraw from Iraq! His position has had a significant effect on the other two Democrat Presidential front runners - Billary and Obama.
In Billary's, Florida acceptance speech last nite, (although no Democrats campaigned and were forbidden by the DNC in the meaningless Florida Democrat Primary Election), she stated that if elected, on her first day as President (makes me shutter to type that statement!), she would call in her Military Leaders and tell them to come back with a plan to pull all our troops out of Iraq in 60 days! An amazing Billary movement to the far left -- for someone who is considered herself a "centralist." In other words, in order for her to get the far left Democrat Move-on.org/kooky voters, she has signed off all the possible cross-over disaffected Republican voters for whom the War-on-Terror is their priority issue. They certainly won't vote for the Democrat candidate now, given both Billary and Obama are saying they will cut & run immediately.
Billary's earlier stances (starting some 6 months ago?) were/was basically the same as Pres. Bush's, that she would withdraw as advised by the Military Leaders. With Edwards seemingly getting the far left fringe Kook vote by saying he would withdraw from Iraq immediately, Billary shifted to, "she would immediately withdraw all American combat troops, leaving only enough to train the Iraqi military and protect American interests (Baghdad Green Zone/International Embassies/Iraqi Central Govt, etc)." Now she has "evolved" to where she will withdraw all American Troops out of Iraq in 60 days with no caveats! Isn't this called "flip-flopping?" You tell me!
I don't want this treatise into turn into a book but will try to explain McCain's surprising win percentage. You won't hear this on Rush either. At least, I haven't heard it so far!
Reason #1 for McCain's win: A significant factor for McCain's good showing is that two very popular Florida Republican politicians, Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Mel Martinez endorsed McCain a day or two before the election.
This was big! And I would guess, accounted for at least half of McCain's surprising win. These blockbuster endorsements happened after my predictions.
As an aside - my own #1 issue in this election is Natl Defense, which happens to be McCain's also. I agree with Geo. W's position on the War on Terror and Iraq/Afghanistan exactly and so does and always has, McCain. So as far as my #1 issue, can I vote for McCain? (VS "Cut & Run" Billary/Obama/Edwards) You bet!
But I would have thought that the illegal alien issue would have had a greater impact on this election then obviously it has. Given, McCain has repeatedly and clearly stated "I get it, the people want our borders secured before any other actions are taken, i.e. Amnesty, etc" and that the notion of Amnesty is dead/history" etc. So I would have thought that a lot of folks would have backed Romney, who has been the strongest on what is my #2 campaign issue. We'll see, might make a difference yet. But it doesn't look like the
Amnesty issue it getting much traction now.
As I earlier predicted, in order to win the nomination and especially the presidency - the Republican candidate has to have a either a win or a strong 2nd place finish in Florida. McCain and Romney did this and so, are still viable candidates. Granted, it was not as close I as expected, but there is an explanation.
Reason #2 for the McCain win: The other half of McCain's surprise I think, resulted from a quirky Florida Election law, (same as present Washington election law) requiring every voter to declare their party, either Democrat of Republican? They were then given either a D or an R ballot. There was no provision for Independents!
It is being said constantly by the various talking heads that McCain's long suit is "independents" supporting him. According to the extracted quote below - Florida Elections officials were "unofficially" instructing independents to declare for one or the other party, in order to vote, which they did - most opting for Republican ballots and voting for McCain!
Although not mentioned in anything you are going to read in the MSM, Florida also had a very controversial Florida Property Tax issue on the Primary Ballot, and a lot of the Florida voters wanted to vote on this important issue. In order to do this, voters had to get one or the other party's ballot. So, surprise - surprise (to me at least - I din't know this requirement or the property issue when I made my "predictions"), these independent voters got Republican ballots and "Oh, by the way, while voting on the Florida Property Tax issue, I guess I will just check McCain as well, since I don't want to vote for either a woman (Billary) or a black (Obama) and I don't like the "Breck Girl"!"
Also a big surprise (NOT!), half of Florida is over 60, white/cross-over voters, and McCain got the majority of these votes! DAH! Who is the oldest white person in the history of the United States to run for the presidency? McCain. Who are the older white folks in Florida going to identify with? That's a no-brainer! McCain!
So, I think the late Crist/Martinez endorsements and the Florida Election laws had a lot to do with the surprising McCain win in Florida.
This quote is extracted from the linked article below.
In northern Coral Springs, near the Sawgrass Expressway and Coral Ridge Drive, David Nirenberg arrived to vote as an independent. Nevertheless, he said poll workers insisted he choose a party ballot."He said to me, 'Are you Democrat or Republican?' I said, 'Neither, I am independent.' He said, 'Well, you have to pick one,''' Nirenberg said.In Florida, only those who declare a party are allowed to cast a vote in that party's presidential primary.Nirenberg said he tried to explain to the poll worker that he should not vote on a party ballot because of his "no party affiliation" status.Nirenberg said a second poll worker was called over who agreed that independents should not use party ballots, but said they had received instructions to the contrary."He said, 'Ya know, that is kind of funny, but it was what we were told.' … I was shocked when they told me that." Nirenberg said he went ahead and voted for John McCain.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-129electionday%2C0%2C6968764%2Cprint.story
And of course, the rest is history!
Will the independent vote hold up and back McCain for the rest of the primaries? With Edwards now out of the race, it could be! When confronted with voting for either a woman or a black, many people might just cross over and vote for whoever the Republican front runner is in the remaining primaries - and right now, that's McCain. And he seems to have the big "Mo". (momentum)
I also gave a further "prediction" and said whoever wins the Florida Election will likely win their parties nomination. As far as Billary goes - Dick Morris noted that in an exit poll in Florida, many Democrat voters who voted in person in the polls, said they had changed their mind in the last 3 days to Obama - as a result of the recent S.Carolina events (Bill Klinton's fiasco) while it is thought that those that voted earlier by absentee, voted for Billary. So while Billary won by a bunch in Florida, this might not be indicative of whether these percentage will hold in the 5th Feb Primaries. As I earlier predicted, it is thought that Obama has picked up momentum, and that Billary needed a big win bad! Is Florida enough, or were there circumstances that explain her big win away? i.e. it was because of absentee voters that cast their votes before the S. Carolina final vote was known and Bill's post election remarks were made? We'll see. Stay tuned for the 5th Feb Primaries!
I said those primaries will sort out everyone - I still think that, and I still lean toward Romney and Obama giving McCain and Billary a run for their money. (and McCain doesn't have any!) (Might be the tie-breaker)
Final comment: In one of my recent posts, I said that we (Republicans) are still waiting for someone to voice a believable "Vision" to inspire the people. I listen/watched with great interest last evening - as first Romney and then McCain gave their speeches on TV last nite to their supporters. Romney cleverly took full advantage of the occasion of being on National TV to enumerate his "vision" for America. He went over all the hot button issues - point by point, giving what he intended to do, if elected, and his "vision" sounded pretty darn good to me/very inspiring IMHO.
McCain came on TV, thanked his two endorsers profusely, crediting them with his win, and gave an abbreviated version of his "vision" for America. Compared to Romney - it was not inspiring, nothing new, etc.
Supposedly, this election is all about "Change". Romney said a mouthful last nite in his speech when he said, "If either Billary or McCain are elected, you are just getting the "status quo" candidates, they are just changing chairs", they both being senators and are partly to be blamed for the present status in Washington D.C. By electing him, you get a person from outside the beltway, who would bring "change" to Washington D.C.
Final thought - Romney can fund his own campaign if he has to - and already has organization in all the 21 state having primary elections on 5 Feb. McCain is broke and doesn't. Lets see how that turns out?
So, I'm not "eating my words." I'm having cereal for breakfast, thank you! and listening to Rushbo's brilliant program opening("non-concession speech") this morning as I type this.
Rush's spin is that his stance on declaring McCain & Huckabee not being conservatives, he didn't lose. And he makes a point, in McCain's acceptance speech - he went a long ways out of his way to stake out his claim to be a "Reagan conservative" from his earliest days in politics. So it seems, McCain is moving toward Rush and not vice-versa! In other words, Rush wins again. But the MSM is saying it just the opposite! That McCain's win - is in Rush's face! Who is moving toward conservatism? Rush was and is always there! McCain is the one moving in his stance!
In conclusion, let me say this - Romney has been either the winner or a solid second in not all, at least most of the primaries to now. Until yesterday's Florida "winner-take-all" primary that gives all 57 of their delegate votes to the winner (McCain), Romney had the most delegate votes to the Republican Natl Convention. Romney has enough (personal) money, he can stay in the campaign as long as he wants to. I still think that Romney will win the Republican nomination in a squeaker - but it now seems, that depends on Huckabee and how long he sticks around? By Huckabee and Romney splitting the conservative votes and McCain gaining all the coalition of moderate/independent/ disaffected Democrat crossover voters/those not wanting to vote for either a woman or a black - McCain might just pull it off, after he being literally dead in the water/unmentioned in the MSM last summer! That's what makes campaigns interesting!
So, mock away! I remain your humble predictor but I don't intent to give percentages in the future - too risky! gk
(Please pray for our Patriot Armed Forces standing in harm’s way around the world, and for their families— Of all the gifts you can give them, PRAYER is the best!) gk
Let me review my exact prediction's words (written a full 5 days ago.)
Quote:
Several of my Ron Paul supporting friends have made sure that I get my fair share of favorable Ron Paul editorials - but being the "fair and balanced" guy that I am, here is another view extracted from one of my favorite websites/Patriot Post (which newsletter I subscribe to). You be the judge! Read and Learn.
(Added Note: I have not included the Ron Paul Editorial link - email me if you want it or see it by scrolling to the end of the archives at)
http://parkenfarkergroup.blogspot.com/2008_01_20_archive.html
IMHO, both Ron Paul, Rudy Giuliani & Huckabee are going to make or break in Florida - if these three can't poll well there, (at least 1st or 2nd) they are just about done - and if that doesn't do it, the 5 Feb primaries will certainly tell the story, where up to 20 states and 1/3 of Americans will be voting. Only the top two candidates will survive after 5 Feb. Florida will be Giuliani's first real test, he passed up all the other earlier state's primaries to concentrate his money/ads and campaigning time in Florida, where he has canvassed/crisscrossed the state for the past 60 days.
Ron Paul also needs to finish high in Florida (against Romney/McCain/Huckabee/Giuliani) to validate his polling data - which, when allowed to be skewed by his followers with call-ins, etc - shows unbelievably high percentages of support. Now lets see if these 40% or higher phone-in polls in other states, are supported in the same numbers at the Florida voting box, with actual voters/votes, which can't be skewed by Ron Paul supporter's phone-ins or emails. I'll eat my words if Ron Paul surprises me!
Bush was elected by the Floridians twice - the first time 2000, as recalled, in a real squeaker/recounts/court cases, etc. Whomever becomes the eventual Republican nominee, can't get elected President without being first or at least a strong second in total state voting numbers - in the 29 Jan Florida primary - I think - anyone being down in the teens % or single digits % in Florida is not going to hack it - for whomever is down there in the ground clutter is an "also ran".
But that is where I think Ron Paul is going to be, and maybe even Huckabee.
I predict it will be Romney - 26 %, McCain 24% and Giuliani 20%, Huckabee in the high teens and Ron Paul in the low teens or even high single digits. Of course, all these numbers could be plus or minus 4%, and because the top three will be so close, their final percentages could put them in a different winning order. But for sure, Romney and McCain will be the top two, we'll see the final order- but I'm guessing Romney. You can mock me if I'm wrong!
Unquote!
Lets see how I did on my wonderful "predictions"?
This predicting exact election results percentages is tricky business! Even given I gave myself a plus or minus 4%. I expected the Florida election results to be a real statistical squeaker with Mitt Romney narrowly defeating John McCain. The final results were - (my 5 days earlier prediction in paren's and the actual result follows):
McCain - (24%) 35.8%
Romney (26 %) 31.1%
Giuliani (20%) 15%
Huckabee (Huckabee in the high teens) 13.3%
Paul (low teens or even high single digits) 3.2%.
As you can see, McCain's final winning numbers surprised me, but I have an explanation for that - more on that later.
Except for McCain's win - I had the order correct. And although I gave myself a plus or minis 4% points difference in my percentages, McCain's difference was almost 10% higher, Romney's was 5.1% higher, and the other three were 5% lower or much lower then my predictions.
Obviously, McCain really over-performed, Romney was a strong second, but the bottom three - under-performed. I expected Giuliani to break into the low 20's but in fact - he didn't even do as well as his campaign strategy of skipping earlier primaries, focusing in Florida - spending all his time (60 days crisscrossing the state) and $3M ad money there...... was a failure. And also, as predicted, if he didn't make a good showing, he was/and he announced today, he is history.
The main thrust of my comments/earlier prediction were actually focused on Ron Paul - a Ron Paul editorial - when I expressed strong skepticism in Ron Paul's apparent strength & stated that his various debates "call-in" polling (and other polling) numbers were extremely inflated. I said I would "eat my words" if I was proved wrong!
It was even worse then I predicted, at least I gave Paul enough credit that he was going to be in the low teens or high single digits. He wasn't even outside the 4% margin of error I gave myself, he polling 3.2% which is my version of being down in the "ground clutter", i.e. Paul not even making enough of a blip on the (political) radar screen as to be unseen!
And of course, Giuliani is supposed announce he is dropping out this morning and endorse McCain. That's not a surprise either - his main (single?) issue was the War on Terror - which also is McCain's and he too, might be thinking if he throws in his lot with McCain, McCain will reward him by picking him as his V.P. running mate.
Although Huckabee was in the low teens and ought to drop out of the race, he is soldiering on - I believe, hoping to win the southern states (probably not) and hoping to gain enough delegates to throw in his lot with and be McCain's Vice-Presidential choice- putting him over the top. The longer the Huckster sticks around, the more conservative votes he siphons off of Romney - and that too, might be the Huckabee/McCain strategy - McCain might even have an "under the table deal" to get the Huckster to stick around at least through the 5 Feb "Super Tues Primaries" - knowing that it will hurt his main competition (Romney). This will not bother McCain who appeals to Republican moderates/even independents/and some disaffected Democrats, but will hurt Romney, by Huckabee and Romney splitting the conservatives/Evangelical/vast right wing conspiracy (of which I'm a charter member!)
And don't ask me about Ron Paul anymore - he apparently is also going to stay in the race - but I don't know why? Ego? You explain it to me! I haven't understood the Ron Paul phenomenon from the get-go, still don't, but it seems that in every presidential race, we have some fringe candidate come out of the woodwork - Peroit, (Bush Sr. spoiler), Ralph Nader (Algore/Kerry spoiler), who skews the election results. And now Ron Paul, being this season's fringe candidate.
It doesn't appear that Ron Paul is going to be as much of a factor in 2008 as some of the earlier presidential election's fringe candidates have had here-to-fore. I don't want to write about Ron Paul anymore - like I said, he is down in the ground clutter - an insignificant statistic, and his presence in the race, touting his "issues" (which seems to be isolationism - cut & run in Iraq) isn't even forcing the mainstream Republican candidates to change their mainline stances/issues, as Edwards did over on the Democrat side. He is a non-factor and not worth wasting anymore time discussing. He doesn't even have a "block of delegates" that he can use to gain concessions on issues he backs- out of the front runners and it doesn't seem he will.
By contrast to Ron Paul - on the D's side, Edwards declared early on in his bid for the Democrat nomination, if he is elected, he would immediately withdraw from Iraq! His position has had a significant effect on the other two Democrat Presidential front runners - Billary and Obama.
In Billary's, Florida acceptance speech last nite, (although no Democrats campaigned and were forbidden by the DNC in the meaningless Florida Democrat Primary Election), she stated that if elected, on her first day as President (makes me shutter to type that statement!), she would call in her Military Leaders and tell them to come back with a plan to pull all our troops out of Iraq in 60 days! An amazing Billary movement to the far left -- for someone who is considered herself a "centralist." In other words, in order for her to get the far left Democrat Move-on.org/kooky voters, she has signed off all the possible cross-over disaffected Republican voters for whom the War-on-Terror is their priority issue. They certainly won't vote for the Democrat candidate now, given both Billary and Obama are saying they will cut & run immediately.
Billary's earlier stances (starting some 6 months ago?) were/was basically the same as Pres. Bush's, that she would withdraw as advised by the Military Leaders. With Edwards seemingly getting the far left fringe Kook vote by saying he would withdraw from Iraq immediately, Billary shifted to, "she would immediately withdraw all American combat troops, leaving only enough to train the Iraqi military and protect American interests (Baghdad Green Zone/International Embassies/Iraqi Central Govt, etc)." Now she has "evolved" to where she will withdraw all American Troops out of Iraq in 60 days with no caveats! Isn't this called "flip-flopping?" You tell me!
I don't want this treatise into turn into a book but will try to explain McCain's surprising win percentage. You won't hear this on Rush either. At least, I haven't heard it so far!
Reason #1 for McCain's win: A significant factor for McCain's good showing is that two very popular Florida Republican politicians, Governor Charlie Crist and Senator Mel Martinez endorsed McCain a day or two before the election.
This was big! And I would guess, accounted for at least half of McCain's surprising win. These blockbuster endorsements happened after my predictions.
As an aside - my own #1 issue in this election is Natl Defense, which happens to be McCain's also. I agree with Geo. W's position on the War on Terror and Iraq/Afghanistan exactly and so does and always has, McCain. So as far as my #1 issue, can I vote for McCain? (VS "Cut & Run" Billary/Obama/Edwards) You bet!
But I would have thought that the illegal alien issue would have had a greater impact on this election then obviously it has. Given, McCain has repeatedly and clearly stated "I get it, the people want our borders secured before any other actions are taken, i.e. Amnesty, etc" and that the notion of Amnesty is dead/history" etc. So I would have thought that a lot of folks would have backed Romney, who has been the strongest on what is my #2 campaign issue. We'll see, might make a difference yet. But it doesn't look like the
Amnesty issue it getting much traction now.
As I earlier predicted, in order to win the nomination and especially the presidency - the Republican candidate has to have a either a win or a strong 2nd place finish in Florida. McCain and Romney did this and so, are still viable candidates. Granted, it was not as close I as expected, but there is an explanation.
Reason #2 for the McCain win: The other half of McCain's surprise I think, resulted from a quirky Florida Election law, (same as present Washington election law) requiring every voter to declare their party, either Democrat of Republican? They were then given either a D or an R ballot. There was no provision for Independents!
It is being said constantly by the various talking heads that McCain's long suit is "independents" supporting him. According to the extracted quote below - Florida Elections officials were "unofficially" instructing independents to declare for one or the other party, in order to vote, which they did - most opting for Republican ballots and voting for McCain!
Although not mentioned in anything you are going to read in the MSM, Florida also had a very controversial Florida Property Tax issue on the Primary Ballot, and a lot of the Florida voters wanted to vote on this important issue. In order to do this, voters had to get one or the other party's ballot. So, surprise - surprise (to me at least - I din't know this requirement or the property issue when I made my "predictions"), these independent voters got Republican ballots and "Oh, by the way, while voting on the Florida Property Tax issue, I guess I will just check McCain as well, since I don't want to vote for either a woman (Billary) or a black (Obama) and I don't like the "Breck Girl"!"
Also a big surprise (NOT!), half of Florida is over 60, white/cross-over voters, and McCain got the majority of these votes! DAH! Who is the oldest white person in the history of the United States to run for the presidency? McCain. Who are the older white folks in Florida going to identify with? That's a no-brainer! McCain!
So, I think the late Crist/Martinez endorsements and the Florida Election laws had a lot to do with the surprising McCain win in Florida.
This quote is extracted from the linked article below.
In northern Coral Springs, near the Sawgrass Expressway and Coral Ridge Drive, David Nirenberg arrived to vote as an independent. Nevertheless, he said poll workers insisted he choose a party ballot."He said to me, 'Are you Democrat or Republican?' I said, 'Neither, I am independent.' He said, 'Well, you have to pick one,''' Nirenberg said.In Florida, only those who declare a party are allowed to cast a vote in that party's presidential primary.Nirenberg said he tried to explain to the poll worker that he should not vote on a party ballot because of his "no party affiliation" status.Nirenberg said a second poll worker was called over who agreed that independents should not use party ballots, but said they had received instructions to the contrary."He said, 'Ya know, that is kind of funny, but it was what we were told.' … I was shocked when they told me that." Nirenberg said he went ahead and voted for John McCain.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sfl-129electionday%2C0%2C6968764%2Cprint.story
And of course, the rest is history!
Will the independent vote hold up and back McCain for the rest of the primaries? With Edwards now out of the race, it could be! When confronted with voting for either a woman or a black, many people might just cross over and vote for whoever the Republican front runner is in the remaining primaries - and right now, that's McCain. And he seems to have the big "Mo". (momentum)
I also gave a further "prediction" and said whoever wins the Florida Election will likely win their parties nomination. As far as Billary goes - Dick Morris noted that in an exit poll in Florida, many Democrat voters who voted in person in the polls, said they had changed their mind in the last 3 days to Obama - as a result of the recent S.Carolina events (Bill Klinton's fiasco) while it is thought that those that voted earlier by absentee, voted for Billary. So while Billary won by a bunch in Florida, this might not be indicative of whether these percentage will hold in the 5th Feb Primaries. As I earlier predicted, it is thought that Obama has picked up momentum, and that Billary needed a big win bad! Is Florida enough, or were there circumstances that explain her big win away? i.e. it was because of absentee voters that cast their votes before the S. Carolina final vote was known and Bill's post election remarks were made? We'll see. Stay tuned for the 5th Feb Primaries!
I said those primaries will sort out everyone - I still think that, and I still lean toward Romney and Obama giving McCain and Billary a run for their money. (and McCain doesn't have any!) (Might be the tie-breaker)
Final comment: In one of my recent posts, I said that we (Republicans) are still waiting for someone to voice a believable "Vision" to inspire the people. I listen/watched with great interest last evening - as first Romney and then McCain gave their speeches on TV last nite to their supporters. Romney cleverly took full advantage of the occasion of being on National TV to enumerate his "vision" for America. He went over all the hot button issues - point by point, giving what he intended to do, if elected, and his "vision" sounded pretty darn good to me/very inspiring IMHO.
McCain came on TV, thanked his two endorsers profusely, crediting them with his win, and gave an abbreviated version of his "vision" for America. Compared to Romney - it was not inspiring, nothing new, etc.
Supposedly, this election is all about "Change". Romney said a mouthful last nite in his speech when he said, "If either Billary or McCain are elected, you are just getting the "status quo" candidates, they are just changing chairs", they both being senators and are partly to be blamed for the present status in Washington D.C. By electing him, you get a person from outside the beltway, who would bring "change" to Washington D.C.
Final thought - Romney can fund his own campaign if he has to - and already has organization in all the 21 state having primary elections on 5 Feb. McCain is broke and doesn't. Lets see how that turns out?
So, I'm not "eating my words." I'm having cereal for breakfast, thank you! and listening to Rushbo's brilliant program opening("non-concession speech") this morning as I type this.
Rush's spin is that his stance on declaring McCain & Huckabee not being conservatives, he didn't lose. And he makes a point, in McCain's acceptance speech - he went a long ways out of his way to stake out his claim to be a "Reagan conservative" from his earliest days in politics. So it seems, McCain is moving toward Rush and not vice-versa! In other words, Rush wins again. But the MSM is saying it just the opposite! That McCain's win - is in Rush's face! Who is moving toward conservatism? Rush was and is always there! McCain is the one moving in his stance!
In conclusion, let me say this - Romney has been either the winner or a solid second in not all, at least most of the primaries to now. Until yesterday's Florida "winner-take-all" primary that gives all 57 of their delegate votes to the winner (McCain), Romney had the most delegate votes to the Republican Natl Convention. Romney has enough (personal) money, he can stay in the campaign as long as he wants to. I still think that Romney will win the Republican nomination in a squeaker - but it now seems, that depends on Huckabee and how long he sticks around? By Huckabee and Romney splitting the conservative votes and McCain gaining all the coalition of moderate/independent/ disaffected Democrat crossover voters/those not wanting to vote for either a woman or a black - McCain might just pull it off, after he being literally dead in the water/unmentioned in the MSM last summer! That's what makes campaigns interesting!
So, mock away! I remain your humble predictor but I don't intent to give percentages in the future - too risky! gk
(Please pray for our Patriot Armed Forces standing in harm’s way around the world, and for their families— Of all the gifts you can give them, PRAYER is the best!) gk
1 comment:
Here's my prediction;
At the GOP convention there is no out right leader with enough votes, after 43 ballots there is a call from the back(yours truly), at first faint but then resonating throughout the hall:
Cheney, Cheney, Cheney!!
AFY!!
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